Syria battle: Alone and broke in opposition to a renewed insurgency, is Assad’s rule vulnerable to collapse?

Again then, he was rescued by his chief worldwide backer, Russia, and longtime regional ally Iran, which together with Lebanon’s highly effective Hezbollah militia helped Assad’s forces retake Aleppo, tipping the conflict firmly in his favor.

Now, as insurgents pursue a shock offensive that shortly captured not simply Aleppo, however the important thing metropolis of Hama and a string of different cities throughout the nation’s northwest, the Syrian chief seems to be largely on his personal.

Russia is preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which at one level despatched 1000’s of its fighters to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong battle with Israel. Iran, in the meantime, has seen its proxies throughout the area degraded by Israeli airstrikes.

Furthermore, Syrian troops are exhausted and hollowed out by 13 years of conflict and financial crises, with little will left to combat.

So will Assad’s rule collapse within the close to future?

“The approaching days and weeks might be important in figuring out whether or not the insurgent offensive poses an existential menace to the Assad regime or whether or not the regime manages to regain its footing and push again on current insurgent good points,” stated Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with america Institute for Peace.

“Whereas weakened and distracted, Assad’s allies are unlikely to easily cave to the rebels’ offensive,” she wrote in an evaluation.

Not out of the woods

Till just lately, it appeared that Syria’s president was nearly out of the woods. He by no means actually received the long-running civil conflict, and huge components of the nation had been nonetheless exterior his management.

However after 13 years of battle, it appeared that the worst was over, and that the world was able to neglect. As soon as considered as a regional pariah, Assad noticed Arab nations warming as much as him once more, renewing ties and reinstating Syria’s membership within the Arab League. Earlier this 12 months, Italy additionally determined to reopen its embassy in Damascus after a decade of strained relations.

Within the aftermath of one of many world’s largest humanitarian crises, assist teams and worldwide donors in Syria started pivoting towards spending extra on the nation’s restoration than on emergency help, offering a lifeline for Syrians and restoring fundamental providers.

However then the sudden offensive launched by insurgents on Nov. 27 reignited the conflict and caught everybody off guard with its scope and pace.

It additionally left Syria’s neighbors anxious, cautious that violence and refugees might spill throughout borders and apprehensive concerning the rising affect of Islamist teams, a serious concern for many of Syria’s Arab neighbors.

Geopolitical shifts

Analysts say a confluence of geopolitical developments starting with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, adopted by the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza that began on Oct. 7, 2023, helped create the chance for Assad’s opponents to pounce.

Because the rebels superior this previous week, Syrian forces appeared to soften away, placing up no resistance, with a number of studies of defection. Russian forces carried out occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s chief in Lebanon stated the group will proceed to help Syria, however made no point out of sending fighters once more.

“The insurgent assault underscores the precarious nature of regime management in Syria,” Yacoubian wrote.

“Its sudden eruption and the pace with which insurgent teams managed to overhaul Aleppo … expose the advanced dynamics that reside slightly below the floor in Syria and may rework superficial calm into main battle.”

Aron Lund, a Syria knowledgeable with Century Worldwide, a New York-based suppose tank and a researcher with the Swedish Protection Analysis Company, stated the developments in Syria are a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia and Iran.

“They too had been certainly shocked by what occurred, and so they have all types of useful resource constraints,” together with Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanon and Syria.

Exhausted and damaged

Whereas the nation’s battle traces have been largely stalemated since 2020, Syria’s financial woes have solely multiplied prior to now few years.

The imposition of US sanctions, a banking disaster in neighboring Lebanon and an earthquake final 12 months contributed to the truth that nearly all Syrians face excessive monetary hardship.

That has induced state establishments and salaries to wither.

“For those who can’t pay your troopers a dwelling wage, then possibly you possibly can’t anticipate them to remain and combat when 1000’s of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund stated. “It’s simply an exhausted, damaged and dysfunctional regime” to begin with.

A part of the insurgents’ try to reassert their grip on Aleppo, the town the place they had been ousted in 2016 after a grueling army marketing campaign, was to challenge a name to authorities troopers and safety companies to defect, granting them what they known as “safety playing cards,” which supply some type of amnesty and assurances that they received’t be hunted down.

The spokesman for the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, stated greater than 1,600 troopers have utilized for the playing cards over two days in Aleppo metropolis.

A whole lot of defectors lined up exterior metropolis police stations Thursday to register their particulars with the insurgents.

Hossam al-Bakr, 33, initially from Hama who served in Damascus and defected 4 years earlier to Aleppo, stated he got here to “settle his place” and get a brand new ID.

The laminated card handed out to every defector was titled the “defection card.” It confirmed the identify, ID quantity and place of service of every defector. It’s issued by “The final command: Navy Operations room.”

On Thursday, Maj. Mohamed Ghoneim, who was answerable for registering the defectors, stated greater than 1,000 troopers or cops got here to register. Some who had been in possession of their official weapons handed them over, he added.

“There are 1000’s who wish to apply,” he stated.

Charles Lister, a longtime Syria knowledgeable, stated whereas many of the worldwide group has written off the battle as both frozen or completed, the armed opposition has by no means given up and has been coaching for such a state of affairs for years.

A rag tag group of militias, tormented by infighting and rivalry, spent years making ready and organizing, propelled by a dream to regain management of territory from Assad.

“The regime has been extra susceptible over the past 12 months or two than it has maybe been all through everything of the battle,” Lister stated. “And it has gotten used to the concept if it could wait issues out, it’s going to finally show to be the victor.”