Transcript: Kevin Hassett, Nationwide Financial Council director, on
The next is the transcript of an interview with Kevin Hassett, Nationwide Financial Council director, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on July 6, 2025.
WEIJA JIANG: We flip now to Kevin Hassett. He’s the director of the Nationwide Financial Council and certainly one of President Trump’s prime advisors. He is additionally highly regarded on that driveway the place I am often alongside a couple of dozen reporters. So, Kevin, thanks a lot in your time this morning. I need to begin with commerce, as a result of there is a large deadline developing on Wednesday. As you realize, that 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs that the President introduced again in April is about to finish. Thus far, the US has introduced a couple of offers; the UK, Vietnam, and also you’re inching nearer to a remaining settlement with China. Do you count on to get any extra offers achieved with America’s greatest buying and selling companions by Wednesday?
KEVIN HASSETT: Yeah. First, I do must take- take a pause and share your ideas and prayers with the folks of Texas. It is an unimaginable, heartbreaking story, and Kristi Noem and the President have instructed the federal authorities to throw every thing they have at serving to the survivors and serving to clear up that place. So, anyway, I am actually heartbroken at this time to see these tales, and I need you to know that within the White Home, all people is placing each effort they’ll into serving to the folks of Texas at this time. On commerce, there’s going to be fairly a bit of reports this week. And, I believe, the headline of the information is that there are going to be offers which are finalized. There are an entire quantity that Jameson Greer has negotiated with international governments, after which they will be letters which are despatched to nations saying, this is how we predict it must go, as a result of the offers aren’t superior sufficient. And the headline goes to be that nations are agreeing all over the world to open their markets as much as our merchandise, and to permit us to place some sort of tariff on their merchandise once they come into the US. At precisely what the numbers can be, can be issues that you will discover out within the information this week,.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin, you mentioned there are going to be offers. For these actually necessary buying and selling companions, if there’s not a deal by Wednesday, is the President going to increase this pause?
KEVIN HASSETT: , the USA is all the time prepared to speak to all people about every thing that is occurring on the planet. And there are deadlines, and there are issues which are shut, and so perhaps issues will push again the dead- previous the deadline, or perhaps they want- ultimately, the President’s going to make that judgment.
WEIJA JIANG: And also you additionally talked about these letters that may begin going out tomorrow, in accordance with President Trump. He mentioned about 10 to 12 nations will obtain them. Do you- are you able to inform us who’s going to get one and what they are saying?
KEVIN HASSETT: As a result of- as a result of, once more, the a part of the letter that could possibly be occurring proper is that we’re near a deal, we’re probably not happy with the progress that we’re making on the deal, and so we’re saying, okay, advantageous, we will ship a letter, however perhaps you get a deal on the final minute too. Till we see every thing that performs out, I believe that we have to simply maintain our fireplace and look ahead to the information this week.
WEIJA JIANG: Is it honest to say that these notices are going to go to our smaller buying and selling companions, as you negotiate with our greater ones?
KEVIN HASSETT: I believe that it could possibly be that it will be each. But in addition, do not forget, that when we’ve nice commerce offers, our smaller buying and selling companions may turn into a lot greater buying and selling companions. And that is, I believe, one of many the reason why nations are racing to set offers up with us forward of the deadline.
WEIJA JIANG: I’ve to ask you concerning the deadlines, Kevin, to make these offers, since you simply talked about you are all the time open. The president mentioned there’s probably not any flexibility left between now and Wednesday. Lower than two weeks in the past, the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that offers can be wrapped up by Labor Day. So, I ponder, you realize, if- how can firms plan if the purpose posts maintain shifting? How can nations negotiate if they do not even understand how a lot time they’ve left?
KEVIN HASSETT: Proper. Nicely, the tough outlines of the offers have gotten clear to all people, as a result of we’ve some offers just like the UK, and the Vietnam deal which are beginning to be, you realize, I suppose, pointers for what may occur. However, one of many issues that we’re seeing that is actually fascinating to me, is that persons are simply on-shoring manufacturing of the US at a document charge. As we have had document job creation, document capital spending, and that is even forward of the Massive, Stunning Invoice. And so, I believe what’s occurring is that persons are responding to President Trump’s, you realize, potential threats to have excessive tariffs on nations by shifting their exercise right here into the US, which is creating jobs, greater than 2 million jobs, since he took workplace, and elevating wages. , wage progress is heading up in direction of the actually, actually excessive pinnacles that we noticed in 2017. And so, I believe there is a race proper now to get exercise into the US. And, partly, that race has been kicked off by President Trump.
WEIJA JIANG: I bear in mind after these reciprocal tariffs had been introduced, you instructed me that there have been about 15 offers that nations had been bringing to the President. How shut, when you may give us any quantity in any respect, what quantity are we going to see this week?
KEVIN HASSETT: Yeah, you will have- you will must get that from Jameson and the President. I believe that, you realize, we have seen plenty of offers which were finalized by our negotiators, after which the President finds issues that might make them higher. And so, it’s- I am not going to get forward of the President on the variety of offers.
WEIJA JIANG: Okay, thanks, Kevin. We’ll look out for that. I need to transfer now to the One Massive, Stunning Invoice that, after all, the President signed into regulation on Independence Day. You may have it, and now you must pay for it. And there is a consensus that this invoice provides tremendously to the deficit. I do know that you’re so aware of these numbers. The Yale Funds Lab estimates it is going to add $3 trillion to the debt. The Tax Basis says this tax portion of the invoice may additionally add $3 trillion to the deficit. The Committee for a Accountable Federal Funds, which elements in curiosity on the debt, says it may add as much as $5 trillion over the following decade. And on this very program, even Speaker Johnson answered within the affirmative when requested if this invoice would add over $4 trillion to the deficit. I do know that the administration says the invoice will truly shrink the deficit by $1.5 trillion. Assist me perceive why there may be such a drastic distinction between your quantity and all these others.
KEVIN HASSETT: Nicely- properly, to begin with, let’s keep in mind that science just isn’t democracy. Fact just isn’t democracy. Our estimates are based mostly on modeling that we used final time, after I was Chairman of the Council of Financial Advisers to say what would occur if we had a invoice, how a lot progress we’d get. And we mentioned, and we had been criticized soundly, that we’d get 3% progress. And we even had the actually technical macroeconomic fashions that mentioned that we’d get 3% progress. We run the identical fashions by this tax invoice, it is even higher. And what we’re seeing is that when you get 3% progress once more, then that is $4 trillion extra in income than the CBO and these different our bodies are giving us credit score for. They’ve been mistaken up to now, they usually’re being mistaken once more, in our perception. However, the factor that disappoints me is that if I put out a mannequin and I say, hey, this is what is going on to occur, we will get 3% progress. After which it seems it is 1.5% progress, then, as an educational economist, as a scientist, then it is my responsibility to say, what did I get mistaken? What did my mannequin miss? These folks aren’t doing that. And that is the factor that I discover disappointing, as a result of we put peer-reviewed tutorial stuff on the desk, mentioned we will get that 3% progress, after which we acquired it proper final time, and we consider we will get it proper this time. However, when you suppose that 1.8% progress is what is going on to occur over the following 10 years, then it is best to agree with the CBO quantity. However, there’s one other a part of the CBO quantity that it’s worthwhile to fear about. And that’s that if we do not move the invoice, that it is the greatest tax hike in historical past. And with that large tax hike, that after all, we’d have a recession. The CEA says that we might have a couple of 4% drop in GDP and lose 9 million jobs. If we had a 4% drop in GDP and we misplaced 9 million jobs, what would occur to the deficit? And so, I do not suppose that the CBO has a really robust document. I do not suppose these locations have a really robust document. And what they should do is get again to the fundamentals of macroeconomic fashions. There is a actually well-known macroeconomist at Harvard named Jim Inventory. They need to return and browse every thing Jim Inventory has written for the final 15 years, and fold these into their fashions, after which perhaps we may discuss.
WEIJA JIANG: I need to discuss too, Kevin, about one other quantity that I do know you and the President disagree with, however that Democrats and plenty of Republicans are fearful about, and that is the CBO’s projection that as many as 12 million Individuals may lose Medicaid protection due to this regulation. What’s the NEC’s estimate for a way many individuals may lose protection?
KEVIN HASSETT: Nicely- properly, yeah. Let’s- let’s unbundle that a bit bit. As a result of, first, on the CBO protection, so what are we doing? So, what we’re doing is we’re asking for a piece requirement. However, the work requirement is that it’s worthwhile to be in search of work, and even doing volunteer work, and also you needn’t do it till your children are 14 or older. And so, the concept that is going to trigger an enormous hemorrhaging in availability of insurance coverage, would not make plenty of sense to us. After which, when you have a look at the CBO numbers, when you have a look at the large numbers, they are saying that persons are going to lose insurance coverage. About 5 million of these are individuals who produce other insurance coverage. They’re individuals who have two forms of insurance coverage. And so, subsequently, in the event that they lose one, they’re nonetheless insured. And so, the CBO numbers on that facet do not make any sense to us in any respect. However, on the opposite facet, return to 2017 once we had work necessities for Obamacare, they mentioned that we lose about 4 million insured between 2017 and 2019, and about double that over the following 10 years. And, actually, the variety of insured went up. It went up fairly a bit, by greater than 10 million over these two years, as a result of the underside line is, the easiest way to get insurance coverage is to get a job. And we have got a Massive, Stunning Invoice that is going to create plenty of job creation and plenty of insurance coverage, and the CBO is simply not accounting for that. And once more, they want to return and have a look at all of the issues that they acquired mistaken. You understand that they are underestimating Medicaid spending by 20%. They need to look again in any respect the issues they acquired mistaken, and clarify what they will do to get it proper sooner or later, and to do a greater job. And in the event that they do this, we’ll take them extra critically. However proper now, I do not suppose any critical thinker may take them critically, as a result of they’ve achieved so mistaken, and mistaken for thus lengthy. Even back- when you return to when President Obama handed Obamacare, they acquired each single quantity there mistaken about how many individuals would get non-public insurance coverage and the way few folks would get Medicaid, and so forth. And so, their document on this modeling area is about as dangerous because it’s attainable to be. In truth, you may, sort of, roll the roulette wheel and provide you with a greater set of numbers, higher historical past, observe document than CBO.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin, what concerning the enhanced subsidies? Is that quantity mistaken too? That the ACA permits about $705 for folks to assist pay for his or her medical health insurance. That does not sound just like the waste, fraud, and abuse that I do know you and the President have talked about eliminating. That simply feels like individuals who can not afford protection, and now it’ll be much more so with the subsidies gone.
KEVIN HASSETT: Proper. Nicely- properly, when you’re- when you’re the- the change within the tax on the suppliers, which is one thing that has been a key speaking level for the Democrats, they are saying that that is going to shut down rural hospitals. What has occurred is that, fairly than let the states- the states have this sport the place they provide a greenback to a hospital after which the federal authorities matches the greenback, after which the state taxes a number of the greenback away. In different phrases, that we’ve an settlement with the states that they will match, however then they’ve this they’ve this trick the place they tax the hospitals after they provide them the cash, so actually, it is the federal authorities giving them the cash. And that is why we have been overspending Medicaid by 20% since this trick began occurring. And so, what we have achieved is that we have put a haircut on that. However, we have additionally put $50 billion right into a belief fund to ensure that the agricultural hospitals are there to deal with the sick. So, I believe it is a prudent type. It is sound budgetary politics. And I believe that no one’s going to lose their insurance coverage.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin Hassett, we are going to watch for a way that ages. Thanks very a lot. Actually respect —
KEVIN HASSETT: – And if I get it mistaken, we’ll examine, and we’ll speak about why I acquired it mistaken. I promise.
WEIJA JIANG: Thanks. We’ll have you ever again. Thanks very a lot, Kevin.
