The massive India issue behind Trump-Putin talks in Alaska

When US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska to debate the struggle in Ukraine, a lot of the worldwide consideration will likely be on potential shifts within the battlefield and peace negotiations. But, behind the scenes, a much less apparent issue seems to have influenced the dynamics resulting in the assembly. This seems to be India’s function in world oil commerce and Washington’s resolution to focus on it with steep tariffs. Statements from each Trump and senior US officers in current days have advised that punitive measures towards India’s purchases of Russian oil have been a part of a calculated bid to strain Moscow into participating in talks.

Trump’s declare: Tariffs as a strategic lever

Talking on Fox Radio’s Brian Kilmeade Present, Trump remarked that his current imposition of steep tariffs on India “could have performed a job” in pushing Putin towards the negotiating desk. He reasoned that the secondary tariffs successfully eliminated India — Russia’s second-largest oil buyer — from the market. “Actually, while you lose your second largest buyer and also you’re in all probability going to lose your first largest buyer, I feel that in all probability has a job,” the US president stated.

In response to Bloomberg, the tariffs, totalling 50 per cent, included a 25 per cent levy on Indian purchases of Russian oil, set to take impact from August 27. Trump advised that the cumulative impact of those measures had “affect all over the place,” implying that financial isolation was a strategic device to carry Russia into dialogue.

Secondary tariffs and the Putin equation

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent strengthened this hyperlink in an interview with Bloomberg, observing that Washington had anticipated Putin to return to the desk “in a extra fulsome method” and that the secondary tariffs on India have been a bit of that leverage technique. Bessent indicated that if talks in Alaska didn’t go effectively, these measures could possibly be tightened additional.

Bessent confused that sanctions and tariffs have been versatile — they could possibly be elevated, diminished or made indefinite. He additionally referenced the “Russian shadow fleet” of tankers working globally, suggesting that Washington may intensify enforcement towards them. His broader level was that the tariffs on India weren’t merely about commerce disputes however about geopolitical positioning, notably when paired with strain on European allies to undertake comparable measures.

India’s power commerce with US and Russia

The tariffs got here regardless of a notable shift in India’s power imports in Washington’s favour. In response to official figures, Indian oil and gasoline imports from the US surged 51 per cent between January and June this 12 months, a report in The Statesman stated. LNG imports from the US practically doubled year-on-year, rising to $2.46 billion in 2024–25 from $1.41 billion within the earlier monetary 12 months.

In February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured that India would improve its power imports from the US to $25 billion in 2025, up from $15 billion in 2024, particularly to assist scale back America’s commerce deficit — a said purpose of Trump’s commerce coverage. This dedication was adopted by discussions between Indian state-owned oil firms and US suppliers for long-term buy agreements.

India’s defence: Coverage consistency and worth math

From New Delhi’s perspective, its purchases of Russian oil have been in step with each home wants and the parameters of US-led coverage. Indian officers have repeatedly famous that they solely purchase Russian crude under the value cap imposed by G7 nations — a mechanism designed by Western powers themselves to maintain world oil costs steady whereas limiting Moscow’s income.

India has additionally identified that Washington nonetheless continues to import sure commodities from Russia, together with fertilisers, chemical substances, uranium and palladium. Furthermore, New Delhi has emphasised that power import diversification — together with a rising share from the US — is a part of a broader nationwide technique to scale back dependence on any single supply, together with Russia.

Strategic ties past commerce

India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs has characterised the focusing on of Indian imports as “unjustified and unreasonable”, a Bloomberg report stated. India has repeatedly reiterated that its US relations are “multi-layered” and relaxation on strategic and geopolitical foundations past commerce disputes. In a briefing to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Exterior Affairs, the federal government confirmed there was no change to the deliberate sixth spherical of India–US talks, which might finally result in a commerce settlement.

This diplomatic posture seems aimed toward preserving the broader bilateral relationship even whereas contesting the equity of the tariffs. New Delhi’s place underscores that it sees Washington as a long-term associate, even when short-term disputes flare.

Alaska summit: Leverage in motion

The Alaska assembly between Trump and Putin is about towards this backdrop of commerce friction and strategic manoeuvering. Trump has publicly stated he believes Putin is now satisfied to “make a deal” and advised the talks might result in a second assembly involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In his remarks, Trump envisioned such a follow-up because the venue for deeper negotiations on “boundaries, lands, and many others.” though he averted explicitly describing it as “divvying issues up”.

Trump acknowledged the chance of failure, estimating a 25 per cent probability that the primary assembly may not achieve success. However, he forged the Alaska talks as organising a “chess sport” during which the preliminary strikes — together with the India tariffs — have been designed to create most negotiating leverage.

The China issue

Whereas India has been singled out in current days, China stays Russia’s largest oil purchaser. Requested about Beijing’s function, Bessent averted direct commentary however reiterated that Trump was adept at creating leverage and protecting “all choices on the desk.” He recalled a second on the G7 summit in Canada when he floated the concept of a 200 per cent secondary tariff on China and noticed that different leaders shortly shifted the dialog — an indication, maybe, of reluctance amongst allies to undertake such aggressive measures.

Bessent’s feedback advised that the administration sees secondary tariffs not simply as punitive commerce measures however as instruments for orchestrating broader geopolitical strain. By focusing on India — a rustic with vital oil commerce with Russia but in addition deepening ties with the US — Washington could also be testing each its capability to affect Moscow and the resilience of its partnership with New Delhi.

India’s balancing act

For India, the problem lies in sustaining strategic autonomy whereas dealing with intensifying strain from each Washington and Moscow. The nation has lengthy positioned itself as a balancing energy, buying arms and power from Russia whereas cultivating defence and expertise partnerships with the US.

Indian has been cautious to level out that the nation’s power safety is determined by steady, inexpensive provides, which in flip require flexibility in sourcing. This strategy has allowed India to benefit from discounted Russian oil in recent times with out breaching Western sanctions regimes.

On the identical time, the growth of US power imports has been a deliberate effort to strengthen financial ties with Washington — some extent New Delhi could quietly count on to weigh in its favour as tariff disputes unfold.

Potential fallout if talks fail

If the Alaska talks don’t yield progress, Bessent’s warning that tariffs might rise additional might put India in a harder place. Further measures may goal different sectors of Indian commerce or tighten restrictions on power transactions, doubtlessly disrupting current contracts with each Russian and US suppliers.

Such escalation might additionally take a look at India’s willingness to proceed aligning with US positions on points just like the Indo-Pacific safety framework or expertise cooperation. Whereas New Delhi has confused the independence of its international coverage, sustained financial strain from Washington may drive extra overt recalibrations.

A calculated gamble by Washington

From Washington’s perspective, linking the India tariffs to the Putin talks is a calculated gamble. The transfer dangers alienating a strategic associate, however it additionally highlights a willingness to make use of each out there lever to affect Moscow’s calculus on Ukraine. Trump’s framing — that dropping India as a purchaser would considerably harm Russia — rests on the idea that the financial affect will translate into political flexibility.

Whether or not this proves true relies upon not solely on the result of the Alaska summit but in addition on Moscow’s capability to redirect its exports to different markets, notably China. If Russia can compensate for misplaced Indian purchases by way of various consumers, the strain could also be blunted.

India as an unintended fulcrum

As Trump and Putin sit down in Alaska, India’s function within the world oil commerce has unexpectedly grow to be a key aspect of US technique. Tariffs ostensibly aimed toward commerce imbalances have been repurposed into geopolitical bargaining chips, with Washington betting that squeezing Moscow’s second-largest oil buyer will hasten motion towards a negotiated settlement in Ukraine.

For India, this growth highlights each its rising significance in world power markets and the dangers of being caught within the crossfire of great-power rivalry. Whereas New Delhi continues to stress the strategic breadth of its partnership with Washington, it’s clear that financial measures tied to third-party conflicts can shortly complicate even essentially the most fastidiously managed bilateral ties.

The Alaska talks could finally be remembered for his or her substantive progress — or lack thereof — on Ukraine. However within the run-up, they’ve already showcased how India, with out being on the desk, has grow to be a quiet but central participant in probably the most consequential geopolitical negotiations of the 12 months.