Bihar: The ally that’s caught within the BJP’s craw

His job is additional sophisticated by Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishor. Paswan, who was outdoors the NDA in 2020, secured over 5 per cent of the votes and performed a key function within the BJP’s lack of 20–30 seats, in accordance with BJP leaders. Now a Union minister, he hasn’t but generated the identical buzz as earlier than, however there’s little doubt he’ll be a part of the NDA.

In 2025, Kishor could tackle the function Paswan performed in 2020, however either side are cautious of him — and never with out purpose. Bihar has modified rather a lot, notes RJD legislator Sarvjeet. Reflecting on the protests and counter-protests following the Mandal Fee report, he observes that neither the caste survey nor debates over reservations stir voters anymore. Speak of ‘social justice’ not excites them. There’s no loyalty to politicians, events, or ideologies, he provides cynically.

Every group, he says, focuses by itself pursuits, making politics way more transactional. Caste equations and land-holding patterns have additionally shifted. The 2023 caste survey revealed that 10 per cent of higher castes had migrated out of Bihar, whereas OBC and Dalit migration was restricted to five per cent and three per cent, respectively.

OBCs, significantly Yadavs and Banias, have change into the brand new land-owning class, dominating EBCs and others. The state authorities mentioned 3 million migrant employees had returned in the course of the 2020 pandemic, however unofficial estimates counsel over 10 million. Many Biharis in cities like Surat, Kolkata, New Delhi, Mumbai, and in states like Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh have distanced themselves from their house state.

The altering voter profile is clear in locations like Jehanabad, as soon as suffering from massacres and Naxal violence. Whereas violence has stopped for 20–30 years, one-third of homes stay locked, says former BJP MLA Arun Kumar. This pattern extends even past Naxal areas. “With out occasions like Chhath, most villages stay abandoned,” he provides.

Even those that return to vote have modified, and outdated slogans not resonate. No surprise the state has one of many lowest polling percentages. The BJP has capitalised on declining upper-caste numbers, aggressively courting different castes and the marginalised. How Tejashwi counters this may decide the end result of what guarantees to be a fierce electoral battle later this yr.