As Jordan’s King Abdullah meets Trump, can he resist US strain on Gaza?
Jordan’s King Abdullah II is about to satisfy with United States President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, amid the latter’s repeated insistence that the monarch settle for Palestinians he want to expel from Gaza so the US can take management of the enclave.
The concept got here up in Trump’s feedback – made alongside a smiling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu final week – that Palestinians must be “eliminated” from the devastated Gaza Strip. Trump has emphasised that, to his thoughts, the Palestinians wouldn’t return, making his concepts ethnic cleaning.
Jordan rejects the concept.
Trump’s feedback have been condemned not solely by Jordan but additionally Egypt, which Trump additionally mentioned ought to “take” Palestinians from Gaza, in addition to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Nevertheless, Trump mentioned US monetary assist for Jordan and Egypt would pressure their hand.
“In the event that they don’t agree, I might conceivably withhold assist,” Trump mentioned on Monday, the day earlier than assembly King Abdullah.
A purple line
US monetary backing for Jordan is necessary – the nation was the fourth-highest recipient of US overseas assist in 2023, with $1.72bn. However accepting the uprooting of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Gaza can be a political non-starter for Amman, based on analysts.
“Accepting one other wave of Palestinians into the nation stays a purple line,” Dima Toukan, a non-resident scholar on the Center East Institute, instructed Al Jazeera. “The king won’t budge on this matter.”
King Abdullah, a longtime US ally, has been beneath strain internationally and domestically for the reason that starting of Israel’s battle on Gaza in October 2023.
Jordan’s place as a key regional ally to the US and a commerce companion with Israel has angered its overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian inhabitants, which additionally consists of at the least 2 million Palestinian refugees and Jordanians of Palestinian origin.
Any acceptance of Trump’s concepts, which have been likened to the Nakba wherein 750,000 Palestinians have been ethnically cleansed by Zionist gangs to declare the state of Israel in 1948, can be a recipe for home unrest and problem the monarchy’s legitimacy.
Protests in opposition to Israel’s battle on Gaza, which has killed greater than 61,700 Palestinians, have taken place in Amman for a lot of the final 16 months.
Whereas they’ve calmed for the reason that ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Jordanians took to the streets once more on Friday to protest in opposition to the concept of Trump displacing Palestinians from Gaza into Jordan.
“Jordanians have been clear with their messages throughout protests on Friday,” Toukan mentioned.
Anger can shortly result in instability: An assault in September by a Jordanian killed three Israeli border guards.
“My sense is that the king is conveying a really pressing message that Trump’s disastrous ‘plan’ is successfully going to destroy Jordan,” Sean Yom, an affiliate professor of political science at Temple College, mentioned.
“The displacement/relocation thought broaches the existential concern of all Jordanians – throughout the board, from monarchy to society – that Israel will annex all of Palestine, and that resource-poor, socially-restive Jordan can be left choosing up the items.”
Support troubles
However Jordan has to weigh up different concerns in terms of Trump’s feedback.
Even earlier than Israel’s battle on Gaza, the monarchy was beneath strain as a consequence of financial struggles that led to disenchantment amongst among the nation’s influential tribes.
Jordan is already getting a style of Trump’s potential to upend a long time of economic help after he introduced on the day of his inauguration that many of the US’s international assist commitments can be frozen for 90 days.
Some Jordanians say they misplaced work or had their companies impacted by Trump’s choice. It is usually notable that whereas Egypt and Israel got exceptions on the overseas assist freeze, Jordan’s place as a staunch regional ally didn’t shield it.
“Jordan is straight dependent upon US assist and safety help,” Yom mentioned. “The dominion is weak to geopolitical blackmail.”
Ever since Jordan and Israel signed the 1994 Wadi Araba peace settlement, the Hashemite Kingdom has been a key ally of the US with assist for it usually crossing administrations and occasion traces.
However Trump’s strain might pressure Jordan and different regional allies to start out hedging their bets, analysts mentioned.
Jordan, Egypt and different Gulf states “are in all probability trying to Russia and China”, Geoffrey Hughes, creator of the guide Kinship, Islam and the Politics of Marriage in Jordan: Affection and Mercy, instructed Al Jazeera.
“Quite a bit will hinge on how a lot that scares the Trump administration and the way credible any menace of defection or hedging appears in gentle of the alerts popping out of Moscow and Beijing.”
Troops as a stick
To proceed working as ordinary, Jordan must discover sufficient funding from overseas powers to fill a billion-dollar hole. Analysts mentioned the prospect of the total quantity being lined was unlikely.
However Jordan might have another technique of leverage.
“The largest factor to observe is the stationing of US forces in Jordan,” Hughes mentioned.
There are about 3,000 US troops in Jordan, largely targeted on countering ISIL (ISIS) lately, a part of a wider community of US troops ostensibly constructed as much as counter ISIL over the past decade, with different troops stationed in Syria and Iraq.
And but, with Trump in energy, even that leverage might not be as necessary because it as soon as appeared.
The US president has break up from his predecessors, who positioned significance on a US presence within the area, talking about pulling US troops from Syria and Iraq.
Trump reiterated the intention to drag US troops from Syria in late January, leaving some to surprise if a US presence in Jordan can be a precedence.
It may additionally alter the Jordan-Israel relationship, giving Israel an excuse to intervene straight with perceived “safety threats” inside Jordanian territory.
“Possibly Trump doesn’t even need [US troops in Jordan] … additionally they complicate any Israeli aggression that could possibly be forthcoming,” mentioned Hughes.
