Authorities accused of blaming document crossings on the climate

Good climate and the willingness of individuals smugglers to cram extra individuals onto small boats have been highlighted by the federal government as elements driving the extent of migrant Channel crossings.

The Residence Workplace has launched figures exhibiting that the variety of “pink days” – when circumstances are thought-about beneficial for small boat crossings – peaked in 2024-25.

The figures additionally present an increase in “severely overcrowded boats” in the identical interval.

The Conservatives and Reform have accused the federal government of “blaming the climate” for the document crossings up to now this yr. The federal government has mentioned it’s working to repair “a damaged asylum system” left by the Tories.

The Residence Workplace figures reveal there have been 190 pink days within the 12 months to April 2025 – an 80% improve on the earlier yr and the best quantity since data started.

Pink days are outlined as days which the Met Workplace has assessed as “doubtless” or “extremely doubtless” to see small boat crossings, primarily based on issues like the peak of waves, wind pace and rainfall.

By publishing the pink day figures, the primary official launch of this type, the federal government is suggesting a hyperlink between good climate circumstances and the extent of migrant crossings.

To date this yr, 14,812 individuals have arrived in small boats – up about 40% on the identical interval final yr. Nearly 1,200 individuals arrived on Saturday alone.

BBC Confirm requested Peter Walsh from the Migration Observatory, primarily based on the College of Oxford, precisely what affect the climate has on Channel crossings.

He mentioned it was an element however different points, such because the effectiveness of smuggling gangs and the variety of individuals wanting to achieve the UK are more likely to be extra necessary.

“A migrant’s determination to return to the UK by small boat is necessary and life-changing for them: will they casually drop their plans and determine to not migrate due to a couple of consecutive days of unhealthy climate? Or will they only wait till the subsequent safe-weather day,” he instructed BBC Confirm.

Whereas acknowledging that gangs have exploited intervals of excellent climate to extend crossings, a Residence Workplace spokesperson insisted the federal government is “restoring grip to the damaged asylum system it inherited”.

“That is why we’re giving counter-terror model powers to legislation enforcement, launching an unprecedented worldwide crackdown on immigration crime and have prevented 9,000 crossings from the French shoreline this yr alone”, the spokesperson mentioned.

Responding to the pink day figures, Shadow Residence Secretary Chris Philp, mentioned:

“Blaming the climate for the best ever crossing numbers up to now this yr is the border safety equal of a lazy scholar claiming ‘the canine ate my homework’.”

Reform MP Lee Anderson mentioned: “This Labour authorities blaming small boat crossings on the climate is like blaming the housing disaster on homebuilders – it is pathetic.”

The figures additionally present an increase in what the Residence Workplace has referred to as “severely overcrowded small boats”.

Within the yr to April 2025, there have been 33 boats which carried 80 or extra individuals on board.

The yr earlier than, there have been solely 11 boats with 80 or extra individuals and there was simply certainly one of these boats recorded within the yr to April 2023.

Whereas the variety of individuals per boat has elevated, the overall variety of boats has fallen from 1,116 in 2021–22 to 738 final yr.

Final yr a document variety of individuals died trying to cross the channel in small boats, one thing which the Residence Workplace attributes to “extra individuals [being] crammed into flimsy and harmful boats” by individuals smugglers.