Delhi elections: Why Arvind Kejriwal needs to be cautious of Congress | India Information – Occasions of India
NEW DELHI: Can Arvind Kejriwal sweep Delhi elections as soon as once more to attain a hat-trick of victories or will a decided BJP achieve stopping the AAP juggernaut this time round with the Congress taking part in a “spoiler” for the ruling social gathering?
The AAP and the Congress had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi collectively however have since then gone their separate methods making the February 5 meeting elections a three-way contest. The buddies-turned-rivals have overtly engaged in ugly spats, a lot to the delight of the BJP. Whereas the Delhi Congress leaders have unleashed all-out assault in opposition to Kejriwal, the AAP chief has accused the grand-old-party of “secret coordination” with the BJP.
Kejriwal has asserted that Delhi meeting elections is a contest between the BJP and APP, taking part in down any doable problem from the Congress. His evaluation is probably not fully off the mark, given the efficiency of Congress within the final two meeting elections the place it didn’t even open its account and noticed its vote share dip to underneath 5%.
However the Congress, which remains to be smarting underneath the shock defeats it suffered in Haryana and Maharashtra final 12 months, goes all out to make its presence felt within the Delhi elections. The social gathering has already introduced names of fifty candidates and has fielded Sandeep Dikshit, son of three time chief minister Sheila Dikshit, in opposition to Arvind Kejriwal. Reacting to Congress’s candidates record, AAP claimed “it appears as if it was finalised on the BJP workplace.” The Delhi Congress leaders have stepped up their assaults on AAP authorities and Kejriwal concentrating on it over problems with corruption and governance. The grand-old-party has promised welfare schemes – Pyari Didi Yojna and Jeevan Raksha Yojna – consistent with the current tendencies to woo individuals of Delhi. Congress nationwide management, which was lacking from motion until now, can also be planning to make the leap. Experiences say Rahul Gandhi will maintain his first rally in Delhi subsequent week.
So, ought to Kejriwal fully dismiss the Congress problem?
Nicely, a have a look at the information of the final three elections reveals that the rise of AAP in Delhi has been congruous with the decline of the Congress. The AAP emerged on Delhi’s political scene in 2013 profitable 28 seats with a vote share of 29.49%. The Congress tally in 2013 got here down to eight seats from 43 that it gained in 2008. It is vote share additionally dipped from 40.31% in 2008 to 24.55% in 2013. The BJP then again noticed a marginal dip in vote share of round 3% however gained 8 seats taking its tally from 23 to 31 seats in 2013.
In 2015, the Congress suffered a 15% decline in its vote share whereas the AAP noticed its help base rise by round 15%. The BJP vote share didn’t change a lot registering a decline of simply 1%. Clearly, this was a sign of Congress supporters transferring in the direction of AAP in an enormous means.
In 2020, the Congress vote share declined additional by nearly half to 4.26%. Nonetheless, this time round AAP’s help base remained nearly the identical however the BJP’s vote share elevated by over 6%. This signalled the strengthening of the BJP on the expense of the Congress.
When it comes to seats gained additionally, AAP was means forward of each the BJP and the Congress profitable 67 and 62 seats out of 70 within the final two elections. This big hole maybe explains AAP’s confidence going into the February 5 electoral battle.
However Kejriwal’s social gathering, which faces the prospect of anti-incumbency after being in energy for 10 years, needs to be cautious of an improved Congress efficiency within the elections. If the Congress manages to raised its vote share it might find yourself chopping into the AAP’s vote-bank which incorporates slum dwellers, Purvanchalis, Muslims and in addition residents of unauthorised colonies. Any improve in Congress’s vote share might not translate into dramatic improve in social gathering’s seat share within the meeting, however would positively make the competition in some seats troublesome for the opposite two major contenders. Since AAP has 62 seats within the meeting, it might find yourself struggling greater than the BJP has solely 8 members at current. The saffron social gathering might achieve from the three-way division of votes.
The BJP, after the 2024 Lok Sabha setback, has made a powerful electoral comeback – creating historical past in each Haryana and Maharashtra meeting elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who’s main the BJP marketing campaign, has already held two rallies unleashing a vicious assault on the AAP authorities. The saffron camp is assured of continuous with its profitable spree.
Kejriwal, who has campaigned with nice success within the final two meeting elections, has additionally gone all out making an attempt to woo all sections in Delhi in his bid to attain a hat-trick in Delhi. He would hope that the Congress continues to stay on the fringes as within the final two elections and never find yourself taking part in a spoiler for the AAP.
