Employers added 151,000 jobs in February, lacking forecasts

Employers throughout the U.S. added 151,000 jobs in February, under economists’ forecasts and pointing to a slowdown within the labor market amid indicators of slowing financial progress.

The numbers

Economists had forecast that the financial system added 160,000 jobs final month, in keeping with a ballot by FactSet. 

The unemployment price final month was 4.1%, barely increased than the 4% price forecast by economists polled by FactSet.

Hiring has eased since December’s blowout variety of 323,000 new jobs, however the labor market has remained resilient in the beginning of 2025, consultants say. 

What it means

The February job figures counsel the labor market “is exhibiting indicators of weak spot with hiring throughout sectors,” stated Joe Gaffoglio, CEO of Mutual Of America Capital Administration, in an e mail. 

He added, “Deteriorating indicators like hiring intentions, new job listings and short-term staffing counsel a possible slowdown in employment progress.”

Notably, the widespread, ongoing cuts throughout the federal government sector additionally aren’t mirrored in right now’s report, in keeping with Andy Stettner, an unemployment insurance coverage professional at The Century Basis. That is as a result of unemployment claims for federal employees can take a number of weeks to look within the official authorities information, he famous. 

Though the complete affect of these cuts aren’t but seen within the information, federal employment declined by 10,000 final month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated on Friday. The U.S. has greater than 2 million federal employees.

Layoffs throughout the U.S. spiked final month to their highest ranges since 2020, led by firings of federal employees ordered by Elon Musk’s Division of Authorities Effectivity, or DOGE,  outplacement agency Challenger, Grey & Christmas stated on Thursday. 

Employers minimize greater than 172,000 jobs final month, a 245% enhance from January and double the quantity introduced throughout the identical month a yr in the past, the corporate stated. That marks the very best month-to-month variety of layoffs since July 2020, when practically 263,000 cuts had been introduced, the agency added.

What the consultants say

The marginally weaker-than-expected February jobs report may immediate the Federal Reserve to renew slicing its benchmark price, famous Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fastened revenue investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Administration. 

The Fed in January hit the brakes on rate of interest cuts, citing persistent inflation. However Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the central financial institution is intently watching the labor marketplace for indicators of weak spot, which may immediate extra price cuts.

The Fed will obtain yet another piece of main financial information forward of its subsequent price determination assembly, scheduled for March 19, with the Client Value Index set to be launched on March 12. The CPI possible rose 2.9% final month, barely easing from January’s 3% tempo, in keeping with FactSet.

President Trump’s tariffs are anticipated to enhance costs for shoppers, though they don’t seem to be prone to present up in inflation information for a number of months as Mr. Trump on Thursday paused 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada till early April. 

“Total, this report is a sigh of aid for the Fed as they will proceed to sit down on the sidelines for the following couple conferences as they assess the potential inflation impacts ensuing from U.S. tariff coverage over the approaching months,” stated Charlie Ripley, senior funding strategist for Allianz Funding Administration, in an e mail.

Presently, solely about 1 in 10 economists polled by FactSet anticipate the Fed to chop charges at its March 19 assembly. About half of these polled are forecasting a price minimize on the Fed’s subsequent assembly, scheduled for Might 7.

“The payrolls progress shocked barely to the draw back and the unemployment price ticked up justifying the momentum that is been constructing for a resumption within the Fed’s slicing cycle,” Rosner famous.