Excessive stakes as Poland heads to spherical two of presidential election

Warsaw, Poland – The streets of Warsaw had been awash with red-and-white flags final Sunday as two presidential hopefuls and their supporters marched by means of the capital for one final time earlier than Poland takes to polls on Sunday, June 1, within the second spherical of voting for the nation’s subsequent president.

Rafał Trzaskowski from the centre-right Civic Platform of the governing Civic Coalition and Karol Nawrocki, an impartial candidate supported by the right-wing Regulation and Justice (PiS) celebration, which ran Poland between 2015 and 2023, are the 2 remaining contenders within the election. Within the first spherical of polls on Could 18, Trzaskowski received 31.1 % of the votes whereas Nawrocki got here second with 29.5 %.

To this point, polling teams say the vote is break up pretty evenly between the 2 for the ultimate spherical. A ballot by IBRiS for Polish information outlet Onet, has discovered that 47.7 % of respondents intend to vote for Trzaskowski, with 46 % indicating they are going to vote for Nawrocki. The remainder are not sure.

One of many two will succeed Andrzej Duda, the outgoing nationalist conservative president who was additionally backed by PiS and has been blamed for holding up justice reforms by utilizing his veto in opposition to the federal government.

This can be a hotly contested race. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have clashed over the European Union, nationwide safety and social values. On the similar time, each candidates take a equally hardline strategy to immigration, and have used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, constructing on rising resentment amongst Poles who see themselves as competing for strained social providers with 1.55 million Ukrainian migrants and battle refugees.

Whereas Trzaskowski has proposed that solely working Ukrainians ought to have entry to the nation’s baby profit, Nawrocki has gone additional, saying he would even be in opposition to Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and even the EU.

‘Each vote is required’

Talking at his “Patriots’ March”, which gathered about 140,000 supporters final weekend, Trzaskowski took goal at his opponent whereas calling for unity.

“It’s excessive time for honesty to win. It’s excessive time for integrity to win. It’s excessive time for justice to win. It’s excessive time for reality to win. That’s what these elections are about,” he declared to a cheering crowd.

“Full willpower is required. Each vote is required. In order that the long run wins. So that every one of Poland wins.”

Trzaskowski has served as Warsaw’s mayor since 2018. His feedback about “honesty” are seen as a reference to a current information story about Nawrocki’s alleged buy of a flat in Gdansk belonging to an aged man in change for a promise to supply him with care. In response to the person’s household, the promise was not fulfilled, and he was positioned in a state nursing house.

In response, Nawrocki has mentioned he’ll donate the flat to charity and identified that beneath Trzaskowski’s mayorship, households had been evicted from state lodging in Warsaw.

Trzaskowski is considered as a extra liberal candidate than his opponent and has, not like Nawrocki, supported requires LGBTQ rights, in addition to the liberalisation of the nation’s strict abortion legislation prior to now. He has remained largely silent about these points through the present marketing campaign, nonetheless. If elected, he could be extra doubtless to assist the governing coalition cross numerous payments, primarily reforms to the rule of legislation and the justice system, which have to this point been blocked by Duda.

“Rafał Trzaskowski could be a pro-European politician,” mentioned Bartosz Rydlinski, political scientist from Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski College in Warsaw. “Brussels, Paris and Berlin could be the primary capitals he would go to. He would attempt to preserve shut relations with the US, however deal with strengthening the European element, each within the European Union and in NATO.”

US endorsement for Nawrocki

Nawrocki’s weekend “March for Poland” by means of central Warsaw gathered near 50,000 supporters, and emphasised his nationalist conservative, pro-Catholic and free-market views. He argues that Poland ought to be prioritising its relationship with the US over the EU.

However his actual triumph got here this week when he obtained an official endorsement from Kristi Noem, President Donald Trump’s secretary of homeland safety.

Nawrocki laid out his plan for Poland’s future on Tuesday on the Conservative Political Motion Convention, an annual occasion hosted by the American Conservative Union (US) for US conservative activists and officers. The occasion is normally held within the US, however happened in Hungary in 2022. This yr, it was held within the Polish city of Jasionka, southeastern Poland, near the air and cargo hub which provides weapons and help to Ukraine.

“For us, for Poles, relations with america are primarily based on a deep basis of values. These values ​​are freedom, democracy, and sovereignty,” he informed the viewers, which included US Secretary of Homeland Safety Noem, Vice President JD Vance, the billionaire Tesla proprietor Elon Musk and Steve Bannon, the previous White Home political strategist in 2017 throughout Trump’s first time period as president.

“My opponent, Rafał Trzaskowski, is enjoying dishonestly,” mentioned Nawrocki, who claims Trzaskowski would comply with EU orders blindly, together with on stress-free immigration guidelines. “Not solely does he lie throughout public debates and get caught in these lies, however he additionally doesn’t wish to say what his actual concept for Poland after June 1st, 2025, is. And this concept is clear. Pace ​​up the migration pact, velocity up the local weather pact and pursue a coverage that’s vital for Brussels, not for our safety.”

The occasion was a much-needed increase for Nawrocki after a protracted week of dangerous information.

First, on Could 22, Slawomir Mentzen, the far-right head of free-market celebration Konfederacja, who got here third within the first spherical of the presidential election, claimed on his YouTube channel interview with Nawrocki that the PiS candidate had taken half in a struggle between soccer hooligans in 2014 – one thing Nawrocki has by no means denied.

Then, in a TV debate the next day, he was seen putting a small sachet on his gum, considered crammed with tobacco, however which prompted hypothesis that he might need been taking medication. Nawrocki responded by offering a unfavourable drug check outcome on Tuesday.

Lastly, a information story was printed by Onet, citing nameless sources, claiming that as a younger man, Nawrocki had participated in supplying prostitutes to friends of the Grand Resort within the seaside metropolis of Sopot, the place he labored as a safety guard in 2007. Nawrocki denied the claims and, in a publish on X, acknowledged that he would sue the outlet.

However the unfavourable information doesn’t appear to have affected his assist.

“In relation to the hooligan struggle, he was 28 on the time, and I don’t have an issue with that as a result of I believe that males ought to know find out how to struggle. In relation to different points – everybody could make a mistake, and it doesn’t must imply dangerous intentions,” mentioned Marcin Mamon, a right-wing freelance journalist who claimed the alleged scandals involving Nawrocki have been exaggerated.

“For me, voting for a conservative or right-wing candidate is a declaration of values, such because the Catholic religion. Voting for the opposite candidate means voting in opposition to the Church and for abortion, which I’m completely in opposition to.”

Parliamentary impasse

Having a like-minded president could be essential for the governing Civic Platform to reverse controversial judicial reforms launched by the previous PiS authorities, particularly relating to the independence of the judiciary.

Because of the modifications, which had been deemed to contradict European legislation, in 2021, the European Union imposed penalties on Poland. Whereas Civic Platform got here to energy in 2023 with the promise of reversing the controversial legal guidelines, it has been unable to take action as President Duda holds a proper to veto and would block any makes an attempt at altering the legislation.

“Nawrocki’s victory would imply a complete battle with the federal government,” mentioned Rydlinski. “He could be a way more conservative president than Andrzej Duda, and he would in all probability refer many payments to the Constitutional Tribunal, which continues to be beneath the management of judges elected by the Regulation and Justice authorities.”

In response to consultants, a victory for Nawrocki would additionally put Poland on a battle course with Europe.

“Karol Nawrocki would very strongly go for bilateral relations between Warsaw and Washington, breaking apart the EU’s unity,” Rydlinski mentioned. “He could be a mini-Trump in Central Europe, which might imply a serious battle with Germany, cooling relations with France, and positively a battle with Brussels.”

Nawrocki’s conservatism and fascination with Trump have sparked concern amongst some Polish voters. Those that voted for left-wing or centrist candidates within the first spherical are prone to unite now, not of their assist for Trzaskowski, however in opposition to what they see as Nawrocki’s Trump-like imaginative and prescient for Poland.

The left-wing and centrist candidates who misplaced within the first spherical have declared their assist for Trzaskowski, and their supporters are anticipated to comply with swimsuit.

“Placing a cross subsequent to Trzaskowski won’t come simple for me,” mentioned Zofia Szeremet, a 20-year-old pupil primarily based in Warsaw who voted for the left-wing chief of the Razem celebration, Adrian Zandberg, within the first spherical. “However I can’t think about not voting in such an vital election. I don’t agree with Trzaskowski on many points, however on the finish of the day, he’s a assure for Poland’s pro-European course.

“Nawrocki is anti-EU, anti-Ukrainian, inexperienced and incompetent, and I don’t think about a president having ties with hooligan actions.”

A detailed name

Polls are inconclusive on the subject of the election favorite. What the primary spherical of the vote has revealed, nonetheless, is that voters are uninterested in the continual primacy of the 2 largest events.

“If we add up the outcomes of Nawrocki and Trzaskowski, it’s barely above 60 %, the worst outcome since 2005. It’s clear that Poles are searching for an alternate, and never solely on the precise, but in addition to the left,” mentioned Marcin Palade, political sociologist and knowledgeable on electoral geography in Poland. This compares with the practically 74 % received by the highest two candidates within the 2020 presidential election – Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski.

“Rafał Trzaskowski completed the primary spherical [this year] beneath even what the polls predicted could be the minimal he might win, which is the worst potential situation,” Palade mentioned. “Nawrocki had the worst outcome a PiS candidate has had since 2005, beneath the scores of the celebration that has stood behind him.”

Moreover, there could also be extra voters within the second spherical: Voter turnout for the primary spherical was 67.3 %. Palade added: “The second spherical shall be determined by younger folks, but in addition by those that didn’t vote within the first spherical. It’s an open query whom they are going to assist.”