Has India actually stopped shopping for oil from Russia as Trump claims? – Firstpost

Chatting with reporters in Washington on Saturday, United States President
Donald Trump mentioned: “I perceive that India is not going to be shopping for oil from Russia. That’s what I heard, I don’t know if that’s proper or not. That could be a good step. We’ll see what occurs.”

The remark is Trump’s newest in a slew of remarks towards India’s buying of Russian crude oil.

Trump has launched a marketing campaign of financial stress towards nations persevering with to have interaction with Russia, threatening tariffs and penalties as leverage to drive a decision to the warfare in Ukraine.

Days earlier, his administration introduced a sweeping set of commerce measures
that will have an effect on round 70 nations, together with India.

As a part of this, a 25 per cent tariff on Indian items getting into the USA took impact, alongside a separate penalty associated to purchases of Russian oil and navy {hardware}.

Trump additionally warned that nations shopping for
Russian oil may face tariffs as excessive as 100 per cent if Moscow doesn’t comply with a peace deal by mid-August.

His stance has raised considerations concerning the potential affect on world markets, given India’s function as the most important importer of Russian seaborne crude since 2022.

In a strongly worded put up on Fact Social, Trump lashed out at India’s commerce practices and its reliance on Russian defence and power sectors. “Additionally, they’ve all the time purchased a overwhelming majority of their navy gear from Russia, and are Russia’s largest purchaser of power, together with China, at a time when everybody desires Russia to cease the killing in Ukraine — All issues not good!”

In one other remark, he took a fair sharper tone: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They’ll take their lifeless economies down collectively, for all I care. Now we have executed little or no enterprise with India, their Tariffs are too excessive, among the many highest within the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do virtually no enterprise collectively. Let’s preserve it that approach…”

The query: Has India actually stopped shopping for Russian oil?

In response to hypothesis, Indian officers and sources have sought to make clear the nation’s place. The Ministry of Exterior Affairs (MEA) has not confirmed any change in coverage and has made it clear that power sourcing choices stay based mostly on value and nationwide curiosity.

MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, when requested about experiences suggesting Indian oil companies had stopped taking Russian crude, mentioned throughout his weekly briefing, “We take choices
based mostly on the worth at which oil is offered within the worldwide market and relying on the worldwide scenario at the moment. As for the specifics of your explicit query, I’m not conscious of it. I don’t have particulars of those specifics.”

Privately, an MEA supply echoed this line, telling ANI that power choices are grounded in financial realities: “India’s power purchases are pushed by nationwide pursuits and market forces. We do not need any experiences of Indian oil companies halting Russian imports.”

Experiences of a brief pause by state refiners

Whereas there was no formal announcement from New Delhi, a number of experiences counsel some state-owned refiners might have quickly paused shopping for Russian oil prior to now week.

In line with Reuters, India’s key state refiners — together with Indian Oil Company, Bharat Petroleum Company, Hindustan Petroleum Company, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemical Ltd — didn’t search Russian crude cargoes just lately.

This growth comes amid narrowing reductions on Russian oil and elevated warnings from Washington concerning the dangers of constant purchases.

These refiners, which management over 60 per cent of India’s mixed refining capability of 5.2 million barrels per day, regularly buy Russian oil on a “delivered” foundation, that means suppliers deal with delivery and insurance coverage.

When they didn’t place orders, they turned as a substitute to the spot market, shopping for principally West Asian and West African crude grades reminiscent of Abu Dhabi’s Murban.

Notably, the nation’s personal refiners — Reliance Industries and Nayara Vitality — are the most important particular person consumers of Russian crude in India, however the state-owned corporations dominate the general refining panorama.

Whether or not these pauses signify a longer-term shift or merely a short-term adjustment stays unclear.

India’s reliance on Russian crude since 2022

India grew to become the world’s greatest importer of Russian seaborne oil after Europe stopped most purchases in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

This marked a major pivot in world power flows: earlier than 2022, Europe had been Russia’s largest oil purchaser.

India now
sources almost 2 million barrels per day from Russia — roughly 35 per cent of its whole oil imports — amounting to over $50 billion value of purchases within the 2024-25 fiscal yr, in keeping with official knowledge.

The vary of Russian crude reaching Indian shores is large. Imports embrace Urals from Russia’s western ports, ESPO and Sokol from the Pacific, and a few grades from the Arctic.

Urals, the most important Russian export grade, is especially reliant on India; as much as 70 per cent of its exports are absorbed by Indian refiners.

Russia’s state oil big Rosneft has additionally develop into deeply intertwined with India’s refining sector, holding a major stake in one of many nation’s largest refineries, which additional cements the business relationship.

Why buying Russian oil shouldn’t be unlawful

Officers and trade sources defending India’s Russian oil imports underline that the purchases should not solely lawful however helpful for world power stability.

Sources chatting with ANI careworn that Russian oil has by no means been sanctioned outright by the US or the European Union.

As an alternative, a price-cap mechanism was launched by the G7 and EU to limit Moscow’s revenues whereas making certain crude continued to movement into world markets.

India has adhered to this framework, making certain all purchases stayed under the cap — at the moment $60 per barrel — whereas securing inexpensive power provides.

The identical sources argued that India’s technique helped forestall a worse disaster: “Had India not absorbed discounted Russian crude mixed with OPEC+ manufacturing cuts of 5.86 mb/d, world oil costs may have surged properly past the March 2022 peak of US $137/bbl, intensifying inflationary pressures worldwide.”

This angle paints India not as an outlier, however as a stabilising drive in world oil markets, particularly at a time when different consumers, together with the EU, proceed to import Russian-origin power in different types.

For example, throughout this era, the EU remained the most important purchaser of Russian liquefied pure gasoline (LNG), accounting for 51 per cent of exports, with China and Japan following.

How Moscow may retaliate

Analysts warn that any sharp discount in Indian demand for Russian oil may provoke a significant response from Moscow.

Russia’s exports to India are so important that they now make up a considerable share of the Kremlin’s revenues.

Specialists at JP Morgan have cautioned that if India’s imports have been disrupted, Moscow may retaliate by closing the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline from Kazakhstan.

This pipeline is important for US power majors like Chevron and Exxon, who’ve important investments in Kazakh manufacturing.

Any closure of CPC would create one other extreme provide shock, reverberating throughout the worldwide oil market.

How India would handle with out Russian oil

If India have been to reduce or halt Russian purchases, the
adjustment could be sophisticated and expensive. Refiners must enhance imports of US and West Asian crude or cut back refining exercise. Both path may ship ripples by the worldwide financial system.

A minimize in refining runs would instantly tighten diesel provide.

India is a major exporter of refined fuels, particularly diesel, to Europe. Lowered output in India would doubtless push European diesel costs greater.

Switching suppliers on a big scale would additionally require logistical and contractual changes.

India’s refiners have built-in Russian crude into their operations over the previous two years; unwinding that movement wouldn’t occur in a single day.

In the meantime, personal refiners — which account for a big chunk of Russian crude purchases — haven’t publicly signalled any change.

Donald Trump’s declare that India has stopped shopping for Russian oil stays unverified.

With inputs from companies