How the Trump administration makes use of a flawed DHS report back to justify sweeping US schooling visa restrictions
The Trump administration has used a report by the Division of Homeland Safety (DHS) to implement new restrictions on immigration and worldwide pupil visas. The DHS overstay report, which is printed yearly, has been cited as justification for a journey ban issued on June 4, 2025, and is anticipated to help additional proposed restrictions focusing on pupil visa holders.In accordance with a Nationwide Basis for American Coverage (NFAP) evaluation, the DHS overstay report doesn’t comprise precise overstay charges, however moderately upper-bound estimates of people whose departures from the US couldn’t be verified. Regardless of this, the administration has relied on the report back to implement bans on immigration and pupil entries from 19 international locations.Overstay figures embrace inaccurate and outdated dataThe DHS report consists of people who’ve overstayed their visas in addition to these whose departures weren’t recorded. Demographer Robert Warren defined that the figures embrace “each precise overstays and unrecorded departures,” as quoted by Forbes. The DHS itself acknowledges that some people listed as overstays could have departed the nation or modified their authorized standing however are nonetheless categorized as overstays within the report.In some circumstances, the report lists individuals as overstays as a result of information matching points. As time passes, DHS methods typically replace and accurately establish these people as having lawfully remained in or departed from the US. As an example, the “suspected in-country overstay” fee for pupil and trade guests at first of FY 2023 was 3.5%. Fifteen months later, this determine dropped by 42%, to 2.03%, as reported by Forbes.Worldwide college students misclassified and misrepresentedThe DHS report additionally overstates figures as a result of people altering immigration standing throughout the US. These embrace individuals who married US residents, utilized for asylum, obtained Momentary Protected Standing, or obtained lawful everlasting residence. In a single instance, cited by Forbes, a protest chief named Mahmoud Khalil was arrested beneath the belief that he was on a pupil visa, although he had already grow to be a lawful everlasting resident by means of marriage.Within the FY 2023 report, overstay charges for college kids from a number of international locations have been based mostly on small numbers. Cuba and Burundi had solely 24 alleged overstays, and Laos had simply 12. Regardless of the minimal figures, these international locations have been included within the journey ban.Fluctuating information cited to justify proposed visa rule adjustmentsThe Trump administration is anticipated to make use of the DHS report back to help a proposed rule to eradicate the “period of standing” coverage for college kids and trade guests, changing it with a hard and fast time interval. An analogous rule was proposed in 2020. In accordance with Forbes, the 2020 proposal would restrict stays to 2 years for college kids from international locations with a pupil overstay fee above 10%.Nevertheless, NFAP notes that these overstay charges differ considerably from yr to yr. For instance, Kenya’s overstay fee dropped by 40% between FY 2022 and FY 2023, whereas Rwanda’s fee fell by 44% over the identical interval. This inconsistency makes it tough to make use of the figures for long-term coverage selections, based on information cited by Forbes.Journey ban based mostly on inconsistent and inflated informationThe June 4, 2025 journey ban applies to 19 international locations. Twelve are absolutely restricted from acquiring US immigrant and short-term visas, whereas seven face partial restrictions. As reported by Forbes, the proclamation cited overstay charges as a motive for the ban, though lots of the people listed had both left the nation or modified their standing lawfully.NFAP discovered that greater than 70 international locations not included within the journey ban had larger pupil overstay charges than among the banned international locations, together with Iran and Venezuela. Liberia and Djibouti, for instance, had larger B1/B2 visa overstay charges than a number of nations included within the proclamation.As quoted by Forbes, the NFAP concluded that “the overstay report allowed for a veneer of knowledge to justify predetermined coverage selections.”TOI Training is on WhatsApp now. Comply with us right here.
