India may even see inflow of metal imports from U.S. tariff-hit international locations, say consultants

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The U.S. reciprocal tariffs are anticipated to disrupt international commerce flows and have an effect on various markets like India with elevated metal imports from international locations hit by President Donald Trump’s import levies, consultants mentioned.

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President Trump on Wednesday (April 2, 2025) introduced reciprocal tariffs on about 60 international locations in a historic measure to counter increased duties imposed globally on American merchandise.

For India, the U.S. has introduced 27% reciprocal tariffs saying New Delhi imposes excessive import duties on American items, because the Donald Trump administration goals to cut back the nation’s commerce deficit and increase manufacturing.

Nevertheless, cars and auto elements and metal and aluminium articles, already topic to Part 232 tariffs at 25%, introduced in March, usually are not lined within the newest order.

Indian Stainless Metal Growth Affiliation (ISSDA) mentioned the general quantity of (chrome steel) exports to the U.S. stays modest, limiting the direct affect of reciprocal tariffs on India’s chrome steel sector.

“The better concern, nevertheless, lies within the potential commerce diversions triggered by such insurance policies. International locations dealing with U.S. tariffs could redirect their exports to India, resulting in an inflow of low-cost imports,” ISSDA President Rajamani Krishnamurti mentioned.

This poses a big problem to home producers, threatening the sustainability and development of the Indian chrome steel trade, he mentioned.

Dhruv Goel, CEO of market analysis agency BigMint mentioned, “The oblique affect might be important. Any disruption in international commerce flows can result in worth volatility, shifts in demand-supply dynamics, and elevated competitors in alternate markets.”

In keeping with BigMint, U.S. imports from India (completed metal, semi completed and chrome steel) stood at 0.22 million tonnes in 2024.

In 2024, imports of metal from China to the U.S. had been 0.39 million tonnes, 3.06 million tonnes from the EU, 0.75 million tonnes from Japan, 1.19 million tonnes from Vietnam and a pair of.53 million tonnes from South Korea.

Vinayak Vipul, Accomplice, Metals and Mining, EY Parthenon mentioned the direct affect will likely be restricted however secondary results resembling international worth fluctuations and commerce diversions require shut monitoring, he mentioned.

Hridaya Mohan, ED at SAIL, mentioned that with the exports from the EU to the U.S. changing into unviable, India could face metal dumping from China, South Korea, and Japan.

Ram Aggarwal, CEO, particular metal maker Goodluck India mentioned the U.S. tariffs are anticipated to adversely affect Indian exporters, notably within the metal tube class.

Ritabrata Ghosh, Vice President & Sector Head, Company Scores, ICRA, mentioned, “Metal was already below the 25% obligation imposed below Part 232 and the newest reciprocal tariff announcement exempts metal. The quick affect might be restricted.” Jindal Stainless MD Abhyuday Jindal mentioned, “The event is certain to have an effect on the worldwide provide chain order, and the Indian trade, particularly manufacturing, may gain advantage from this.”

“The decrease reciprocal tariff price of 27% on Indian items, in comparison with a lot increased charges on China and Southeast Asian international locations, may open up an array of alternatives in different sectors on account of recalibrated commerce flows. India Inc and MSMEs, supported by beneficial coverage measures, can take this chance to fill these gaps.”