Is Taiwan already at struggle with China? What shall be Beijing’s first step if it invades the island?

Taiwan is already at struggle– not with bombs and bullets, however with an invisible, relentless marketing campaign of cyberattacks and undersea sabotage. Day by day, Taiwan faces 2.4 million cyberattacks, a determine that has doubled in only a 12 months. These digital incursions, attributed to China, are usually not merely disruptions– they’re a part of a sustained technique to weaken Taiwan’s establishments, destabilize its governance, and probe its defenses.

“We have already got skilled a type of war-like scenario from China’s cyberattacks,” stated I-Chung Lai, President of Taiwan’s Prospect Basis, whereas talking at Firstpost’s IdeasPod through the Raisina Dialogue 2025.  

“Day by day, 2.4 million cyberattacks goal Taiwan. That’s double what we noticed in 2023. Regardless of this, we have now not seen main cyber incidents disrupting public infrastructure– hospitals stay open, authorities features proceed.”

Whereas Taiwan has up to now withstood the onslaught, the escalation is evident: China is testing Taiwan’s resilience, making ready for a second when these assaults would possibly escalate.  

Chopping the cables: Taiwan’s digital lifeline in danger

Past the digital battlefield, one other silent menace looms beneath the waves: Taiwan’s undersea cables. Since 2023, no less than 11 undersea cables have been broken—some connecting Taiwan to offshore islands, however others forming vital hyperlinks between Taiwan and the remainder of the world.

“The 11 broken cables principally affected Taiwan’s offshore islands, but when China broken all 28 key cables—14 within the north and 14 within the south—it wouldn’t simply have an effect on Taiwan. Your complete Indo-Pacific’s knowledge community could be disrupted,” stated Lai.

Hiroyuki Akita, a overseas and worldwide safety commentator at Nikkei Asia, sees a transparent intent right here.

“Cyberattacks and slicing undersea cables…could be the start of a full-scale invasion by China,” Akita defined. “Over 90 per cent of the circulate of worldwide knowledge and data occurs via the undersea cables…not solely in Taiwan, however in all areas of the world,” he stated, earlier than including, “China will forestall Taiwan from sending any info out of Taiwan.”

Damaging these cables wouldn’t solely isolate Taiwan digitally, but in addition disrupt worldwide markets and safety communications throughout the area. This isn’t hypothetical—when a serious earthquake in southern Taiwan broken undersea cables years in the past, inventory markets within the Center East suffered quick disruptions.

This tactic is a part of Beijing’s broader gray zone warfare technique– coercive techniques that fall in need of direct navy confrontation however regularly erode Taiwan’s safety and financial system.

Classes from Ukraine: Taiwan’s path to resilience

Taiwanese officers have studied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rigorously, recognizing parallels in China’s technique. Akita, who visited Ukraine and interviewed President Volodymyr Zelensky in December 2023, drew three main classes for Taiwan:

Self-defense comes first. “If you need help from different international locations, it’s essential to first struggle for your self,” Akita stated. “Nations that display the desire to defend themselves usually tend to obtain exterior help.”

Alliances have to be in-built peacetime. “You can not mobilize world help after being attacked,” he warned. “Taiwan should strengthen its partnerships now.”

Infrastructure resilience is vital. “Regardless of relentless Russian bombings on Ukraine’s energy grids, transportation, and telecommunications, Kyiv and different cities continued functioning. Taiwan should guarantee related resilience within the face of an assault.”