Opinion: Opinion | Not Russia-Ukraine, Gaza, These ‘Smaller’ Wars Are Reshaping The World
A look at current historical past is all the time insightful within the examine of geopolitics and geosecurity. Let’s rewind to 1990—a pivotal yr on the worldwide stage. On the time, I had simply returned with the final parts of the Indian Peacekeeping Power (IPKF) from Sri Lanka and was headed to an Military cantonment in a ‘peace’ location. Nevertheless, our plans rapidly modified once we had been diverted to Punjab. We had been to kind the frontline of forces crossing the River Sutlej to counter Pakistan’s intransigence—its launch of Train Zarb-e-Momin and its sponsorship of militancy and terror in Punjab. Zarb-e-Momin, a navy coaching manoeuvre with operational intent, was designed to ship a message and divert our consideration. In the meantime, battle was additionally brewing in Kashmir, setting the stage for a broader geopolitical confrontation.
The Story Of Al Qaeda
It was the tip of the Chilly Conflict. The Berlin Wall had simply fallen, and the Soviets had been nonetheless withdrawing from Afghanistan. Punjab was in turmoil, diverting strategic consideration in a number of instructions. The Iran-Iraq Conflict had ended only a few years earlier. Victorious jihadis from throughout the Islamic world had been rising from the rubble of Afghanistan in 1990. This description covers solely a small part of the world then. It doesn’t even contact on Africa, which was additionally rising from the shadows of previous conflicts in Somalia, Mozambique, Namibia, Angola, and past.
Leaving the whole lot else apart, I usually ask myself: the place did Al Qaeda come from? The reply traces again to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, which triggered a worldwide name for jihad in opposition to the Soviets. The US, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan supported the Afghan mujahideen with funding, weapons, and coaching to counter Soviet affect. Osama bin Laden, a rich Saudi, joined the struggle effort, organising overseas fighters and logistical assist. This community later advanced into Al Qaeda, based in 1988.
When the Soviets withdrew in 1989, bin Laden and different jihadists noticed it as a victory for Islam over a superpower. Because the Chilly Conflict led to 1991, the US and its allies disengaged from Afghanistan, leaving an influence vacuum. Many overseas jihadists, together with bin Laden, believed their subsequent mission was to battle Western affect—notably the US, which they noticed as the following “occupying energy”.
How Al Qaeda Grew to become a International Jihadi Community
After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, bin Laden supplied his mujahideen to defend Saudi Arabia, however the Saudi authorities rejected him, inviting US forces as an alternative. This marked his formal break with the US and its allies, reworking Al Qaeda from an anti-Soviet group into a worldwide jihadist motion.
Al Qaeda’s rise was deeply tied to the Chilly Conflict’s conclusion. The Soviet-Afghan Conflict offered the navy expertise, networks, and beliefs that fuelled its creation. After defeating the Soviets, the US and its allies deserted Afghanistan, permitting extremism to fester. Bin Laden and his followers redirected their jihad in opposition to the West, resulting in the worldwide terrorist threats we face at present.
From this, a number of classes comply with. First, at any time when the world emerges from a interval of intense exercise and lowers its guard, it’s usually struck by unconventional turbulence. This occurred in 1989-90 with the onset of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, simply because it did with the civil wars in Africa between 1990 and 1995. The actions in Chechnya and Bosnia had been additionally linked to the occasions of this era. Extra just lately, the withdrawal of US and Coalition troops from Iraq in 2011 finally paved the way in which for the rise of ISIS (Daesh).
Though ISIS suffered navy defeats in Mosul and Baghuz, it was solely partially displaced, discovering refuge in Afghanistan’s northern badlands. Al Qaeda maintained a presence there, alongside Central Asian and Pakistani terrorist teams. In the meantime, the Taliban stays reclusive and untrustworthy.
Remnants of ISIS additionally persist in Kurdish-held areas alongside the Syria-Turkey border, and the chance of its resurgence stays actual. If northern Syria and the Turkish border area stay unstable, ISIS may exploit these situations to rebuild its networks and launch new offensives. The mixture of weak governance, regional infighting, and present ISIS sleeper cells makes this an ongoing and severe risk.
So, the place does this lead? Within the first month of the brand new US President’s tenure, the world order is already dealing with severe disruption. As world consideration is drawn to Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific, commerce disputes, and tariffs, seemingly small points proceed to develop, usually with the potential to spiral into main crises. Bear in mind how ISIS emerged in June 2014?
We should contemplate the long-term penalties of the mass destruction in Gaza. A complete technology of Palestinian youth now lives with out hope—a sentiment that extends past the youth to the complete inhabitants. For individuals who have endured such loss and struggling, revenge and retribution develop into highly effective feelings, and the blame is commonly positioned on the complete world. This creates fertile floor for terror teams.
If you happen to marvel how these teams maintain themselves—with assets, fighters, and funds—we’ve seen repeatedly that these are not vital obstacles. Ideologies are plentiful, and a trigger (whether or not perceived as simply or unjust) isn’t tough to fabricate when retribution is the driving drive.
How Will Present Gaza Turmoil Manifest Itself
There is no such thing as a formal or direct linkage between Palestinian teams and ISIS. The latter follows an excessive Salafi-jihadist ideology and has usually criticised Palestinian factions, together with Hamas, for being too nationalistic and failing to embrace its imaginative and prescient of world jihad. Nevertheless, underneath a determined bid for survival, Hamas may change its stance, doubtlessly opening the door to some stage of cooperation with ISIS.
Hezbollah, a Shia organisation with direct allegiance to Iran, stays a precedence for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Whereas Hezbollah and Hamas have traditionally aligned on sure fronts, Hamas’s ideology shouldn’t be far faraway from ISIS-style radicalism, with its affect and goals doubtlessly spreading past Palestine to different elements of the Arab world. That could be a concern, notably for regional stability.
On February 5, 2025, throughout the Kashmir Solidarity Day occasion in Rawalakot, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Hamas representatives—Khalid Qaddoumi and Naji Zaheer—had been current. They acquired notable consideration from members of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), marking the primary occasion of Hamas officers collaborating in an occasion in PoK. Whereas this will likely not but signify a proper alliance, it signifies a rising effort to determine wider networks within the realm of transnational terrorism—additionally known as world terrorism. Comparable patterns of revival may emerge in East and West Africa, the place Al Shabab and Boko Haram preserve strongholds.
My level is easy: Whereas the world’s consideration is consumed by main geopolitical issues—similar to European safety, NATO’s future, the displacement of Palestinians, and the resumption of US-Russia cooperation—there have to be devoted strategic minds targeted on smaller conflicts. These so-called “small wars” have the potential to reshape world safety in methods much more destabilising than we could at the moment think about.
(The author is a Member of the Nationwide Catastrophe Administration Authority, Chancellor of the Central College of Kashmir, and Former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps.)
Disclaimer: These are the private opinions of the writer
