Pakistan, Afghanistan transfer in direction of ‘restoring ties’ in talks with China
Islamabad, Pakistan – As Pakistan remained embroiled in a disagreement with its archrival India – following a dramatic alternate of missiles and drones practically two weeks in the past – it this week superior diplomatic efforts with two different neighbors: China and Afghanistan, which might result in the formal resumption of diplomatic ties between Islamabad and Kabul after practically 4 years.
In an “casual” trilateral assembly held in Beijing on Might 21, the international ministers of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan convened underneath a discussion board first launched in 2017, and which final met in Might 2023.
This time, a key end result from the assembly, based on Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi, was a renewed willingness by each Pakistan and Afghanistan to revive diplomatic relations after heightened tensions in recent times.
“Afghanistan and Pakistan expressed clear willingness to raise diplomatic relations and agreed in precept to alternate ambassadors as quickly as doable. China welcomed this and can proceed to provideassistance for the enchancment of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations,” Wang mentioned.
He added that the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC) – a $62bn mega mission underneath China’s Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI) – will now be prolonged into Afghanistan.
A Pakistani diplomat with direct information of the talks instructed Al Jazeera that the following spherical of the trilateral conferences shall be held “very quickly”, inside a number of weeks, to construct on the momentum from the Beijing conclave.
“I’m moderately optimistic in regards to the outcomes. It was a fantastic confidence- and trust-building train between the three nations,” mentioned the official, talking on situation of anonymity in regards to the Beijing assembly.
Trilateral diplomacy amid Indo-Pakistan tensions
The assembly got here after a four-day standoff between Pakistan and India, with each nations claiming “victory” and launching diplomatic offensives to claim dominance.
The battle, from Might 7 to Might 10, adopted Indian strikes on what it known as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan, in retaliation for the Pahalgam assault in Indian-administered Kashmir final month that left 26 civilians useless. India blamed the assault on Pakistan-based armed teams, an allegation Islamabad denies.
Whereas China urged restraint on either side, its help for Pakistan was evident on the entrance traces of the battle, with the Pakistani army utilizing Chinese language fighter jets, missiles, and air defence programs.
However, Indian Overseas Minister S Jaishankar mentioned on Might 15 that he appreciated Afghan performing Overseas Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s “condemnation” of the Pahalgam assault, in a dialog between the 2. Indian media additionally reported a go to to New Delhi by senior Taliban determine and deputy inside minister, Ibrahim Sadr, in early Might.
Mustafa Hyder Sayed, government director of the Islamabad-based Pakistan-China Institute, known as the Beijing assembly “very vital”, given Afghanistan’s geopolitical sensitivity.
For Pakistan and China, the “battle with India has strengthened strategic readability” on the necessity to work intently with Afghanistan, Sayed mentioned.
Kabul-based political analyst Tameem Bahiss agreed.
“This [the call between Muttaqi and Jaishankar] indicators a significant shift in India-Afghanistan relations, one that might elevate considerations in Islamabad amid an already risky regional local weather,” he mentioned. “The timing of this trilateral assembly, not simply its content material, displays an pressing want for coordination amongst these three nations as new geopolitical dynamics take form in South and Central Asia.”
Deputy Prime Minister/Overseas Minister, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50, Member of the CPC Political Bureau & Overseas Minister of the Individuals’s Republic of China, Wang Yi, and Performing Overseas Minister of Afghanistan, Amir Khan Muttaqi, held an off-the-cuff trilateral assembly in… pic.twitter.com/xbVcmUDijD
— Ministry of Overseas Affairs – Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk) Might 21, 2025
A rocky relationship
When the Afghan Taliban returned to energy in August 2021, many noticed it as a win for Pakistan, given its historic ties to the group. From 1996 by means of 2021, Pakistan was one of many Taliban’s key allies. India, in the meantime, seen the Taliban as a proxy of Pakistan’s intelligence companies and refused to have interaction with it.
Nonetheless, relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have deteriorated.
Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of permitting teams like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to launch assaults throughout the border, an allegation the Taliban vehemently deny. The TTP, shaped in 2007, shares ideological roots with the Afghan Taliban however operates independently.
Based on the Pak Institute for Peace Research, Pakistan suffered 521 assaults in 2024 – a 70 p.c improve from the earlier 12 months – leading to practically 1,000 civilian and safety personnel deaths.
However in a visit that was seen as a possible breakthrough in strained ties, Pakistan’s Overseas Minister Ishaq Dar visited Kabul on April 19, simply days earlier than the Pahalgam assault.
Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based safety analyst, says Pakistan’s renewed diplomatic outreach to Afghanistan prioritises key considerations, with safety taking priority over commerce, border disputes, and border closures, a sentiment he mentioned China additionally shares.
“To foster significant commerce ties, Pakistan’s safety considerations should be addressed first,” Tipu instructed Al Jazeera, warning that failure to take action might escalate tensions to armed battle.
“However given China’s world affect and shut ties with each Pakistan and Afghanistan, Beijing can play a pivotal position as a guarantor of any commitments made,” added Tipu, who co-founded the safety analysis portal The Khorasan Diary.
Widespread safety threats
Whereas Pakistan continues to accuse the Afghan Taliban of harbouring fighters who assault targets in Pakistan, many of those assaults have been directed at Chinese language nationals engaged on CPEC tasks.
Pakistani authorities figures estimate that about 20,000 Chinese language nationals reside within the nation. A minimum of 20 have been killed in assaults since 2021 in provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Teams together with the TTP have claimed accountability.
China has additionally expressed concern over the East Turkestan Islamic Motion (ETIM), alleging that its fighters use Afghan territory to stage assaults in opposition to China.
Sayed of PCI confused that each Pakistan and China see safety as their “core curiosity” in Afghanistan.
“It is a shared menace, and prior to now the ETIM has additionally had a significance presence in Afghanistan. And these militant networks are related with one another as effectively. So that may be a pre-requisite for any cooperation to maneuver ahead, to first neutralise these terrorist outfits, which appear to be working freely and comfortably in Afghanistan,” he mentioned.
Nonetheless, Bahiss famous that because the Taliban’s return to energy, most regional nations, together with China, have discovered the safety state of affairs inside Afghanistan acceptable, enabling ongoing financial engagement.
“The important thing exception is Pakistan, which continues to face critical threats from Afghan soil. Whereas Pakistan prioritises eliminating or containing the TTP, Kabul is targeted on commerce, transit, and regional integration,” he mentioned.
That is the place China’s pivotal position might come into the image, the Kabul-based analyst mentioned, including that the nation is uniquely positioned to mediate by encouraging safety cooperation whereas additionally advancing commerce and transit initiatives that profit all three nations.
India-Afghanistan ties and Pakistan’s considerations
Through the civilian governments in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, India and Afghanistan developed shut ties, regardless of a number of assaults on Indian diplomatic missions by the Taliban and its allies.
In current months, there was elevated interplay between officers from New Delhi and Kabul, together with the current Jaishankar-Muttaqi dialog.
Does this warming of ties elevate alarm in Islamabad? Sayed doesn’t assume so.
“Pakistan doesn’t distrust Kabul. However Pakistan has requested for motion. The rulers there have to stroll the discuss concerning TTP and different terrorist outfits. I don’t assume both Beijing or Islamabad opposes Kabul having constructive relations with India, so long as it doesn’t compromise the pursuits of Pakistan and China,” he mentioned.
Nonetheless, Bahis mentioned New Delhi’s rapprochement with the Taliban might result in worries in Pakistan and China, each of which have traditionally had tense ties with India.
“Whereas current India-Afghanistan contacts are nonetheless in early levels, their timing could elevate considerations in Islamabad,” he mentioned.
“Afghanistan has the sovereign proper to have interaction with any nation, together with India. However it should tread fastidiously. Clear messaging is crucial to make sure that its rising ties with New Delhi aren’t misinterpreted as threats by different regional gamers,” Bahiss mentioned. “Balancing these complicated relationships would require diplomacy, transparency, and mutual respect.”
