Saudi Arabia, Russia provide oil provide continuity for India amid Iran’s Hormuz uncertainty

“Nonetheless, India’s evolving import combine offers a robust cushion – Russian inflows (2.2 million barrels of oil per day, or mb/d, in June) now exceed mixed Center East provides, and additions from the US, West Africa, and Latin America bypass Hormuz completely,” the report contended.

India imports 5.5 mb/d of crude, with 2mb/d (over 35 per cent) from the Center East transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Regardless of this logistical publicity, India’s crude sourcing technique has materially developed since 2022.

“Russian imports now exceed these from all Center Japanese suppliers mixed. Additions from the US (0.44mb/d), Brazil, West Africa, and even Latin America provide alternate routes bypassing Hormuz through the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Pacific Ocean. India might be sure that provides enhance from Russia, the US and others,” the report talked about.

Whereas fears of a complete closure have resurfaced, historic precedent means that Iran is unlikely to totally blockade Hormuz.

Doing so would damage its personal crude exports (96 per cent routed through Kharg Island), alienate key companions like China (its largest purchaser), and provoke coordinated army retaliation.

“Specialists peg the chance of a full closure as ‘very low’, with probably situations involving short-lived disruptions (24-72 hours). Nonetheless, these disruptions might nonetheless inject vital volatility, tighten tanker availability (already seen within the drop in Center East and Gulf (MEG) sure empty tankers), and induce danger premiums in oil and product markets,” the report stated.