Syria: Speedy change leaves UK with political dilemma

The velocity of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria is giving us a real-time perception into the dilemmas of overseas coverage.

The stable changing into fluid within the blink of an eye fixed, and a complete array of awkward questions being posed.

A dictator flees, his regime collapses and Overseas Secretary David Lammy addresses the Commons, telling MPs that Assad is a “monster,” a “butcher” a “drug vendor” and a “rat”.

However issues are shifting shortly.

When requested whether or not the UK can be suspending asylum functions from Syria, Lammy indicated that he did not know.

He did not know that his cupboard colleague, House Secretary Yvette Cooper, was saying, at just about precisely that second, that they have been being suspended.

Within the yr to September, the fifth largest variety of asylum claims by nationality got here from Syrians and practically each declare – 99% – have been granted.

However the authorities is now pausing functions, alongside France, Germany and others.

Why?

The primary cause is that the overwhelming majority of individuals making use of for asylum from Syria have been doing so, they mentioned, as a result of they have been fleeing the Assad regime.

That regime has now gone and subsequently so has, on the face of it, the central case being made in most functions.

The opposite cause, described as a lot much less important in numerical phrases however nonetheless a possible trigger for concern on safety grounds, is Syrians related to the failed regime themselves now making an attempt to assert asylum.

Figures in authorities are actually additionally considering the prospect that some Syrians within the UK could now wish to return to their residence nation.

And what about what – and who – comes subsequent in Syria?

There was loads of discuss in the previous couple of days about Hayat Tahrir-al Sham, or HTS.

The British authorities labels them a proscribed terrorist organisation.

The US and the European Union connect their very own labels which quantity to broadly the identical factor.

Being proscribed means it’s a felony offence for folks to advertise, help or be a member of the organisation.

And in sensible phrases it means the federal government cannot have a standard diplomatic relationship with it.

That’s one factor, when it’s an organisation it does not wish to have something to do with, fairly one other if it finally ends up being the recognised authorities of a rustic.

So how quickly may HTS be de-proscribed?

Cupboard Workplace Minister Pat McFadden, some of the senior figures within the authorities, informed the BBC there might be a “comparatively swift choice” on whether or not to speak to HTS.

However quick ahead a number of hours and each the overseas secretary and the prime minister have been emphasising a a lot slower tempo, saying – in keeping with the message from the White Home – that HTS can be judged on its actions, with the implication this might take time and wouldn’t be rushed.

Lammy mentioned it was proper to be “cautious”.

Sir Keir Starmer mentioned “no choice is pending in any respect.”

A lot has modified so shortly in Syria, with a number of implications and posing tough selections – and there will probably be loads extra to come back.