Trump threatens tariffs in 50 days: What hurt will it do to Russia?

United States President Donald Trump has threatened to impose steep buying and selling restrictions on Russia except a peace take care of Ukraine is reached inside 50 days, as he introduced an settlement with NATO allies to ship extra weapons to Kyiv.

The bulletins on Monday marked a shift in US international coverage as Trump’s endorsement of Ukraine comes simply weeks after Washington introduced it could pause weapons gross sales to Kyiv.

However Trump has expressed growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin and hopes that tariffs and sanctions, in addition to new offers for Patriot air defence missiles, will assist convey an finish to Russia’s greater than three-year invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned on Telegram that he had spoken to Trump and “thanked him for his readiness to assist Ukraine and to proceed working collectively to cease the killings and set up an enduring and simply peace”.

On Tuesday, Russia’s high safety official, Dmitry Medvedev, mentioned the Kremlin didn’t care concerning the “theatrical ultimatum” issued by Trump, including that Putin will touch upon the US proposals if he deems it crucial to take action.

What did Trump say?

Sitting with NATO Secretary-Normal Mark Rutte on the White Home, Trump informed reporters he was upset in Putin and that billions of {dollars} of US weapons would go to Ukraine.

In current days, Russia has launched tons of of drones to assault Ukrainian cities, angering Trump, who had accused Putin on July 8 of throwing plenty of “b*******” on the US. Trump has mentioned that his shift was motivated by frustration with the Russian president.

“My conversations with him [Putin] are at all times very nice… after which the missiles go off at night time,” he adopted up on Monday.

“We’re going to make top-of-the-line weapons, they usually’ll be despatched to NATO,” Trump mentioned, including that NATO would pay for them.

For his half, Rutte mentioned that Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway need to be a part of the weapons deal.

Trump additionally mentioned that “we’re going to be doing very extreme tariffs [on Russia] if we don’t have a deal in 50 days”.

Putin has but to just accept a proposal from Trump for an unconditional ceasefire, which was shortly endorsed by Kyiv.

Trump additionally mentioned US tariffs on Russian exports could be priced “at about 100%” after which threatened “secondary tariffs [otherwise known as secondary sanctions]”.

Secondary sanctions, which might be much more punishing than US tariffs, could be levied on any nation that trades with Moscow, focusing on its commodities enterprise particularly.

What’s Trump’s tariff risk to Russia?

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Western nations – together with the US, the UK, and European Union nations – have imposed 21,692 sanctions on Russia, most towards people.

Key sanctions on Moscow embrace import bans on Russian oil, a worth cap on Russian gas, and the freezing of Russian central financial institution property held in European monetary establishments.

However the risk to impose so-called secondary sanctions, if carried out, would mark a notable shift.

To this point, Group of Seven (G7) member states have held again from taking steps that may limit Russia from promoting its fossil fuels elsewhere, to key patrons like China and India.

Lawmakers from each US political events are pushing for a invoice – the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 – that may goal different nations that purchase Russian oil and gasoline.

The invoice would give Trump the authority to impose 500 p.c tariffs on any nation that helps Russia. US senators are reportedly ready on Trump’s OK to maneuver the invoice ahead.

Trump might additionally impose secondary tariffs via the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act, which lets the president limit commerce within the occasion of a nationwide emergency.

Elsewhere, EU nations are near reaching an settlement on a brand new bundle of sanctions towards Russia, the bloc’s international coverage chief Kaja Kallas mentioned on Tuesday.

“We hope to succeed in a political settlement on the 18th sanctions bundle,” Kallas mentioned earlier than a gathering with international affairs ministers from the 27 EU nations in Brussels.

How dependent is Russia’s financial system on fossil fuels?

Fossil gas gross sales nonetheless generate substantial income for the Kremlin. Seaborne oil revenues, for example, dropped modestly in 2024 however stayed at close to pre-war ranges.

This is because of Russia’s “shadow fleet” – ships with opaque possession constructions and no Western ties by way of finance or insurance coverage, permitting them to bypass Western sanctions.

So, whereas G7 sanctions have decreased Moscow’s margins and elevated export prices, they haven’t lower volumes to importing nations.

From 2022 to 2025, China has bought virtually half of Russia’s whole crude oil exports (roughly 5 million barrels per day), with India following intently behind at almost 40 p.c.

Each nations additionally import a considerable amount of Russian coal. Different importing nations embrace Brazil, Turkiye and Egypt.

The EU, in the meantime, continues to devour massive quantities of Russian pure gasoline, although Brussels has said it needs to terminate all its contracts by 2027.

As for the US itself, increased tariffs on Russian items would have little influence – exports to the US totalled simply $3bn in 2024, or 0.7 p.c of Russia’s whole exports.

Whereas fossil fuels now contribute much less to Russia’s gross home product (GDP) than pre-invasion, Moscow’s dependence on power merchandise stays excessive.

Estimates range, however fossil fuels nonetheless make up 55 p.c of Russian export revenues and 16 p.c of its GDP (roughly $280bn)

That compares with 60 p.c and 18 p.c, respectively, earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 – a small drop.

How a lot might Trump’s sanctions risk harm Moscow?

A pointy decline in Russian power flows from secondary sanctions would virtually definitely result in increased international costs, significantly for pure gasoline.

“The influence would most likely be larger on pure gasoline costs than oil,” mentioned Kieran Tompkins, senior local weather and commodities economist at Capital Economics, in a be aware.

He identified that “the oil market seems to have adequate spare capability to roughly offset a lack of Russian exports”, owing to untapped OPEC provides.

Nonetheless, he identified that “knocking out half of Russia’s crude and petroleum exports [on the back of Trump’s threat] might scale back export revenues by $75bn or so.”

In flip, Tompkins mentioned that would induce a “fiscal disaster” in Russia, resulting in “debt issuance ramping up, bond yields spiking and strain for widespread fiscal tightening.”

Wanting forward, Trump’s 50-day proposal will give Moscow a while to give you counterproposals and delay the implementation of sanctions.

However Trump can be hoping that the specter of sanctions will affect Putin to place an finish to hostilities.