Was Starmer’s summit sufficient to shift the diplomatic dial?

Lancaster Home might have been bathed in sunshine as European leaders gathered to chart a method ahead for Ukraine.

However there was a cloud hanging over the summit amid the gilt-edged grandeur of the previous royal townhouse in central London.

It got here within the type of a query – was all of it value it? Was this gathering of European powers sufficient to shift the diplomatic dial? Or had the US made up its thoughts to go it alone on discovering a ceasefire in Ukraine?

The prime minister’s reply was very a lot that Europe nonetheless had a task to play. He mentioned the UK, France and others would work with Ukraine on a plan to cease the combating after which focus on that plan with the US.

He mentioned Europe would preserve army help flowing now and, within the occasion of a peace deal, it might enhance Ukraine’s personal defensive capabilities, build up the nation’s “armed forces and border defences” to make sure that “Ukraine can draw on munitions, finance and tools to defend itself,” based on the official conclusions of the summit.

And Sir Keir mentioned there could be a “coalition of the keen” to defend Ukraine and assure peace.

Who or what that will contain shouldn’t be but clear. The prime minister merely mentioned that there could be “a pressure consisting of European and different companions”.

The UK and France have already mentioned they might be keen to place boots on the bottom in Ukraine to assist deter Russian aggression.

The European Fee chief, Ursula von der Leyen, mentioned the aim was to show Ukraine right into a “metal porcupine that’s indigestible for potential invaders”.

The intention, it might seem, is to beef up the European provide for post-war safety ensures for Ukraine in an try and persuade Donald Trump to vow a US army backstop.

The president has to this point been reluctant to go down that route, suggesting the presence of US mining corporations on the bottom in Ukraine could be sufficient to maintain the peace.

Sir Keir doesn’t share this view, saying explicitly “to help peace on our continent and to succeed, this effort should have sturdy US backing”.

This summit was in some ways an try by Europe to take some possession of the diplomacy. In current weeks, efforts to finish combating in Ukraine have been led by Trump chatting with Russian’s President Vladimir Putin and at his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Europeans additionally wished to search out methods of repairing the transatlantic alliance, which is wanting fairly fragile after the confrontation between Trump and Zelensky within the Oval Workplace on Friday.

In current weeks, the US administration has gone after its European allies; questioning their democracy, voting towards them on the United Nations and – within the type of the president’s chief enforcer, Elon Musk – saying even the US ought to depart the Nato army alliance.

The summit in London was an try by the prime minister each to calm diplomatic brows and stiffen diplomatic sinews. Diplomats mentioned there was clear resolve across the desk to help Ukraine but additionally to construct on Trump’s want to discover a ceasefire.

However Europe stepping up is just half of the story and far depends upon whether or not the US is keen to play its half.

Diplomats say the US is keen to de-escalate the tensions with Zelensky, however there have been blended messages on Sunday. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned America was prepared to have interaction with Ukraine, however the Nationwide Safety Adviser Mike Waltz recommended Zelensky may need to resign as a part of any ceasefire.

So the end result of the Lancaster Home summit was seemingly a united European entrance in backing Zelensky, with the promise of extra army help for Ukraine to return.

However the cloud lurking within the London skies stays what the US does subsequent. And that’s not but clear. Trump and his deputy have made their antipathy in the direction of Zelensky as clear as their belief in Putin.