What has been driving the rise in incapacity profit claims?

The federal government has confirmed particulars of its scaled-back plan to reform well being and incapacity advantages, following strain from Labour MPs.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall mentioned modifications to Pip (Private Independence Fee) would solely apply to new claimants.

She additionally confirmed that funds to present recipients of the health-related aspect of common credit score (previously often called incapacity profit) will now not be frozen.

Nonetheless, authorities evaluation on the impression of welfare reforms which can be nonetheless deliberate estimates that an additional 150,000 individuals will find yourself in “relative poverty” consequently.

BBC Confirm seems at how many individuals declare these advantages and why there was a big improve lately.

In 2019, nearly three million working-age adults (these aged 16 to 64) in England and Wales claimed both incapacity or incapacity profit – 1 in 13 of the inhabitants.

As of March 2025, that had grown to about 4 million or 1 in 10 of the inhabitants, in keeping with analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Research (IFS).

This rise has been fuelled by claimants citing psychological well being situations.

In keeping with IFS information , the ‘psychological and behavioural problems’ class (which incorporates situations reminiscent of ADHD) accounted for 44% of all claims in 2024 – up from round 39% in 2015.

IFS analysis additionally reveals that 69% of recent 25-year-old claimants have been primarily dwelling with psychological and behavioural problems, whereas this was the case for under 22% of recent 55-year-old claimants.

Eligibility for Pip – a profit that helps working-age disabled individuals with every day dwelling prices – is set via an evaluation.

Beneath the present evaluation system, claimants are scored on a zero to 12 scale by a well being skilled on on a regular basis duties reminiscent of washing, getting dressed and making ready meals.

Earlier than the Covid-19 pandemic, round three-quarters of those assessments have been carried out face-to-face.

When in-person assessments have been suspended in the course of the pandemic – for apparent causes – most have been switched to phone or video calls as an alternative.

Though initially a brief measure, these distant assessments have now turn into the norm.

Right now, fewer than 10% of Pip assessments happen in individual in keeping with the federal government.

Some have prompt that the drop in face-to-face assessments might have inspired extra candidates to return ahead as they’d have prevented the potential stress of an in-person appointment.

Nonetheless, analysts say there’s no substantive proof to exhibit that a method or one other.

Louise Murphy, an economist on the Decision Basis, factors out that approval charges for each face-to-face and distant assessments are largely unchanged for the reason that pandemic.

“What has modified is far more persons are claiming Pip – the federal government’s personal figures present there are round 1,000 new awards made every day,” she says.

Whereas there may be some proof that rising psychological well being situations have contributed to the rise in Pip claims, impartial researchers stay unsure concerning the precise causes behind the upward pattern.

Ms Murphy has recognized one potential issue, the rising state pension age.

“The variety of individuals labeled as ‘working-age’ grows because the state pension age continues to extend”, she factors out.

Beneath present guidelines, as soon as somebody reaches state pension age (at the moment 66 and resulting from rise to 67 by the top of 2028) they normally now not qualify for Pip.

This rise within the state pension age means the working-age inhabitants is rising, placing extra strain on the system.

Ms Murphy believes it’s chargeable for a few fifth of the rise in well being and disability-related profit claims over the previous decade.

One other potential issue, in keeping with researchers, is that folks’s understanding of the advantages system – and what they might be entitled to – might have improved in the course of the pandemic and the price of dwelling disaster.

Eduin Latimer, an IFS senior analysis economist, agrees.

“There’s quite a lot of proof that folks declare health-related advantages in response to financial shocks”.

However whereas there are some believable explanations for the rise in Pip claimants, Mr Latimer says “we do not actually know the reply”.

The federal government says it can perform a wider evaluation into Pip, to be carried out by Work and Pensions Minister Stephen Timms, which is able to report by subsequent Autumn.

Initially, the federal government had anticipated its reforms to save lots of round £5.5bn a 12 months by 2030. Nonetheless, following the concessions, that saving is now anticipated to be £2.5bn.

Even when the federal government had gone forward with its preliminary reforms, the general working-age welfare invoice had nonetheless been set to rise to about £72.3bn in 2029-30.

The federal government has now revised its impression evaluation of its plans and this means that about 150,000 extra individuals will likely be left in relative poverty (after housing prices) by 2030.

That is down from the 250,000 individuals left in relative poverty in its unique evaluation.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman mentioned the modelling “would not mirror the broader motion we’re taking to raise individuals out of poverty and lift dwelling requirements, particularly via work.”

The federal government says this contains £1bn of assist measures to assist disabled and long-term sick individuals again into work.