Yingkiong dam: India’s final line of defence towards China’s ‘water bombs’ on the Brahmaputra

From the melodious strains of Mahabahu Brahmaputra to the haunting great thing about Bistirna Paarore, the voice of Bharat Ratna Bhupen Hazarika immortalised the river Brahmaputra as a logo of may, magnificence and timeless grandeur. His music conjures the essence of a river that’s not merely a geographic characteristic however the lifeblood of Assam, flowing with tales and songs by its total size.

Rising up in Dibrugarh, a city cradled on the southern banks of the Brahmaputra in Higher Assam, I usually stood in awe of the river’s imposing expanse. From the southern shore, the northern banks appeared like an unreachable mirage, hidden past the sheer width of its waters. Through the monsoon, the river transforms right into a churning colossus, its swirling currents a potent reminder of nature’s uncooked, untamed energy.

It evokes each reverence and a creeping worry—the sort that clutches the guts as one wonders what devastation may unfold ought to the flood safety embankments falter. But, amid these fears, the river stands everlasting, demanding silent prayers and choices of respect from those that name its banks dwelling.

However time has etched modifications into the face of this mighty river. What as soon as brimmed with water as much as its banks, even throughout autumn and winter, now reveals huge, desolate stretches of sand. The riverbed lies uncovered for kilometres, lowering the Brahmaputra to a narrower, quieter model of its monsoon self. The boats that after danced throughout its waters through the dry season now yield to jeeps and SUVs, leaving trails of mud the place waves as soon as lapped.

The sight of automobiles weaving their method throughout the sandy expanse is a stark, unsettling distinction to the river’s erstwhile majesty—a poignant reminder of how even nature’s giants are usually not resistant to the passage of time and the imprint of human exercise.

A story of draught and deluge

To those that have lived alongside it, younger and outdated alike, the sudden emergence of the riverbed feels virtually like a betrayal. Speculations abound, with the finger of suspicion pointing towards the higher stretches of the Brahmaputra in China. Dams constructed alongside its course in Tibet have sparked issues of a man-made drought in a area as soon as synonymous with lush rainforests, vibrant flora and teeming fauna.

Whereas glimpses of the riverbed had been a rarity up to now, they’ve now turn out to be an all-too-frequent sight, particularly through the dry months from November to March.

Through the monsoon, the Brahmaputra and its tributaries, swelled by rains cascading down the hills of Arunachal Pradesh, rework into torrents of destruction downstream in Assam. The phobia of floods is perennial, but the announcement in Might 2022 of India’s second-largest dam at Yingkiong in Arunachal Pradesh added one other layer of apprehension.

The proposed reservoir, with a capability to carry 10 billion cubic metres of water, goals to counteract China’s plans for enormous dam-building on the river’s higher stretches. At a price of Rs 50,000 crore, the dam is designed to retailer water through the monsoon and launch it step by step through the dry season, making certain water safety for India’s northeastern areas.

Whereas formidable, the dam additionally casts lengthy shadows of doubt. The Brahmaputra flows for 918 kilometres by India, however a good portion of its non-monsoon water comes from snowmelt in Tibet.

If China decides to retailer or divert this very important water upstream, the very viability of India’s dam may come into query, jeopardising water stream downstream. Such a state of affairs may set off a extreme disaster for India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh. Most significantly, if there’s a sudden launch of water from China how lengthy it is going to be capable of maintain the water.

China’s dams, looming like ‘water bombs’ upstream, pose a twin menace: an ecological disruption from managed or diverted stream and the apocalyptic hazard of sudden, catastrophic releases. The Brahmaputra, a river that has impressed awe, reverence and artwork, now stands at a crossroads—a sufferer of geopolitical manoeuvers and a harbinger of the precarious stability between human ambition and nature’s fury.

China’s colossal menace

China’s audacious plan to assemble the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra river has raised alarm bells in India and Bangladesh, the river’s downstream neighbours. Introduced as a part of Beijing’s sweeping improvement technique, this colossal hydropower venture, estimated at an astronomical $137 billion, is about to dwarf even China’s Three Gorges Dam. Positioned on the decrease reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, because the Brahmaputra known as in Tibet, the dam will likely be situated close to the purpose the place the river takes a dramatic U-turn earlier than flowing into India and ultimately Bangladesh.

The venture guarantees immense engineering feats and geopolitical ripples. Nestled in a tectonically energetic zone, this Himalayan dam is designed to harness the power of one of many world’s deepest canyons. With a vertical drop of two,000 metres over a mere 50-kilometre stretch, it’s touted as one of many planet’s richest hydropower reserves.

China anticipates the dam will generate a staggering 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electrical energy yearly, enough to energy over 300 million folks—a scale that highlights its ambition.

India’s strategic issues

For India, the ramifications of this venture prolong far past power. The dam grants China the potential to regulate or manipulate the stream of the Brahmaputra, which may have vital penalties for India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh. In instances of political stress, the flexibility to launch large quantities of water may rework this infrastructure marvel right into a weaponised asset, threatening floods and devastation downstream.

The importance of the Knowledgeable Degree Mechanism (ELM), established in 2006 to handle points associated to shared rivers between New Delhi and Beijing is huge. Beneath this mechanism, China shares hydrological information with India through the flood season, although belief and transparency stay tenuous amid rising tensions.

Geologically, the tectonic instability of the Tibetan Plateau compounds the dangers. Continuously rocked by earthquakes, this area presents formidable challenges for any mega-infrastructure venture. Though China has sought to assuage issues, claiming the dam is engineered with cutting-edge expertise and prioritises ecological safety, the true energy of nature is at finest unknown and unpredictable.

The sheer scale of the Brahmaputra dam is mind-boggling. In keeping with experiences, the venture will exploit practically 70 million kilowatts of hydropower potential—equal to the mixed capability of three Three Gorges Dams.

Whereas China heralds the dam as a logo of its engineering prowess and power ambition, its development echoes louder within the corridors of geopolitics. For India and Bangladesh, the Brahmaputra is greater than a river. It’s a lifeline and a power of nature that shapes the future of tens of millions. As China advances this mega-project, the query stays whether or not the river will turn out to be a bridge for cooperation—or a flashpoint for battle.

Is the proposed Yingkiong dam a saviour?

From a geopolitical standpoint, the Yingkiong dam is instrumental in reinforcing India’s riparian rights over the Brahmaputra, particularly within the face of China’s aggressive improvement of upstream megadams. These Chinese language tasks have raised reputable issues about potential disruptions to water stream, sedimentation dynamics and ecological stability in downstream areas of India and Bangladesh.

The Yingkiong dam, as deliberate, goals to mitigate these dangers by enhancing water administration, offering storage options and providing sturdy flood management mechanisms. Nonetheless, the true problem lies in translating these expectations into tangible outcomes, notably given the unpredictability of China’s actions, which may escalate ecological tensions and complicate regional cooperation.